90 ordspråk av Bill Dreher

Bill Dreher

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It's pretty well accepted that the economy is gradually building momentum, and Kmart has declared bankruptcy,

I think it all comes down to Wal-Mart's aggressive advertising campaign, ... They are being much louder with their campaign, and I think they've done a good job of stealing the 'early-bird' holiday shoppers.

The announcement by Neiman Marcus...makes us as concerned as we have ever been that this Christmas will be extremely lackluster. It appears now the high-end consumer is beginning to scale back their purchases, which does not bode well for the holiday season. This type of thing is clearly going to have an impact on other high-end retailers.

Even Wal-Mart, with their superior systems, their ability to analyze information, being able to predict sales down to the SKU and generate customer profiles, doesn't have good visibility of what's going on in 2001, which makes us concerned about the guys who don't have that ability.

Discount stores have really become an increasing portion of consumers' expenditures. Now there's talk of fluctuating energy prices, job layoffs, and people are looking for the best value possible. So we believe the discount stores are going to benefit disproportionately from the tax rebate. We expect Wal-Mart will be the leader in July.

They're telling us to pull our number down by 4 cents (per share).

Wal-Mart has made it very clear that the prospects for this holiday are much stronger than the conventional wisdom would have had it.

The low energy prices are more beneficial than any tax break, particularly for discount shoppers.

Consumers were not in the holiday spirit up until the last week of the holiday season, when there was a mad rush for the store. And the big unknown is the result of that game of chicken, where shoppers waited until the last minute to get the best bargains and retailers held off.

While Kohl's is expected to steal market share from Mervyn's, it should be limited to 1 to 2 percent of total division shares.

Wal-Mart continues to show strong momentum and operating performance. Its food and apparel sales did well, which fits in with our thesis that Wal-Mart is really taking on the supermarkets. By adding new apparel name brands like Levi's, I think it's in a position to see tremendous success in apparel too.

Kohl's is having a major disconnect with its customers. The company's inventory growth is outpacing sales and I think their problems will continue into the fourth quarter and even the first quarter next year.

Wal-Mart's cautious comments are warranted. Even though its problems are not company-specific, it does bode badly for the profits and sales across the retail chain in the back half of the year.

We believe this update is a combination of management's typical conservatism and sales sluggishness from the unusually warm weather.

I think it all comes down to Wal-Mart's aggressive advertising campaign. They are being much louder with their campaign, and I think they've done a good job of stealing the 'early-bird' holiday shoppers.

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