47 ordspråk av Brian Wesbury

Brian Wesbury

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Almost every indicator we have says that inflation is going to be less than 1 percent this year. That means that the 5.5 percent Federal Funds rate is too high.

It's still going to be a very tight call,

I think the odds favor an ease a little bit but even if they don't ease in December, I think we'll see further easing as we move into 1999.

The Fed is going to have a very difficult decision, and I think a lot will depend on what some other numbers on the economy will do and what the stock market does.

Weak currencies tend to signal weak economies. Brazil did not want to devalue, it fought off devaluation for a long time. Nonetheless the economic fundamentals forced them to devalue against their wishes.

I'm not saying this doesn't mean anything. I just think it means less than the printed numbers have shown.

This number is a one-month number. I would really be hesitant to make a trend out of this. If you strip out oil, these numbers do not look so bad and, especially in the producer price area, prices are still falling and this tells me that the pipeline does not have inflation in it.

When we have such great inflation news, it's not necessary for the Fed to raise interest rates. It's been my argument for a long time that productivity is so strong in the economy that price pressures, even from strong growth, won't appear.

All of a sudden, this mystery of strong growth and low inflation doesn't seem such a mystery any more. This is exactly what the new economy is all about.

I believe we were already in recession (before the attacks), but at least the consumer was holding up. Now we are virtually guaranteed to see spending fall. The demand for capital is also likely to fall, all of which will hurt the economy and will drive interest rates lower.

Clearly, Tuesday's actions raise the risk of investing in the U.S. economy.

I think rules are made to be broken and history isn't always a perfect guide. Today the stock market is very undervalued. As I look into the future, the gains of the past few weeks are a precursor to what is going to happen in the future.

I do believe we're going to have better policies for the markets moving forward. I think we already saw the market move up in expectation of this.

Any reduction is going to take away from my forecast of any boosted growth,

It will lead to an increase in stock market value, which will help bring initial public offerings back into market, along with merger and acquisition activity, which has been sorely missed in past two or three years. That added financial market activity comes along with a lot of real economic activity as well.

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