24 ordspråk av Daniel Katzive

Daniel Katzive

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The reason the dollar is staying strong is because markets have continued to price in more Fed tightening.

Michigan was a touch below consensus. The dollar may pull back a little, especially against interest-rate-sensitive currencies.

The data suggests the big momentum positions which had mirrored carry trades have now been cut back to much more neutral levels, which should provide a good backdrop for carry trade rebuilding in the new year.

Oil prices have continued to move higher and equities have apparently taken it badly.

The dollar is continuing to respond to the new shift in tone from the FOMC yesterday, and that has continued to work through, not only on the currency market but also on the interest rate and equity markets.

I think the break of the big level last week ... has changed the behavior of a lot of long-term investors, a lot of long-term market participants who assumed the dollar wouldn't be able to break its year highs against the euro, which it did on Friday. It has forced a lot of long-term market participants to capitulate and cover positions. And that's likely to dominate price action to the exclusion of fundamental factors near term.

It's got to be the yen. That is the currency with the lowest yield and borrowers can be comfortable that the BOJ is not going to significantly boost their funding costs over the course of the year.

Further evidence of stability in the housing market and solid retail activity could prompt a rethink of MPC easing risk now priced in, allowing the euro to retreat sharply against the pound.

Data has been strong enough heading into year-end to prevent market participants from making strong conclusions on the likely timing of the end of the Fed's tightening cycle, and in this environment the dollar is likely to remain well-supported for now.

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