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186 ordspråk av David Lereah

David Lereah

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People can get overexcited. That should go away.

We've had favorable housing affordability conditions for some time, but what's new is the effect of a gradual increase in consumer confidence, combined with a turnaround in the economy. As a result, some people who've held back from major commitments over the last few months have entered the housing market.

With mortgage interest rates projected to rise slightly to around 7.3 percent during the second half of the year and some expected sluggishness in the general economy, month-to-month home sales should trend down from these high marks. However, we expect a total of 5.15 million existing-home sales in 2001, making this year the second highest on record.

We were truly at a break-neck pace for home sales in January and February, likely the result of unseasonably mild weather, so it comes as no surprise to see sales decline to a more sustainable pace.

Mortgage rates are very low; usually when they're high is when the economy begins to deteriorate, and that leads to tighter lending. But mortgage rates are low and the debt service is low, so the burden's not that high right now -- there won't be as much tightening as under other scenarios.

I think we're going to see much of the same thing for the first half of 2003 with an improving economy later in the year offsetting slightly higher mortgage rates.

With a recent rise in interest rates, the housing affordability index can be expected to slide but remain very favorable.

When mortgage interest rates first began to rise from record lows, it appears some buyers jumped into the market to take advantage of good affordability conditions before interest rates moved even higher.

We knew the September pace for existing-home sales was going to be a big number, but after setting records in July and August we thought the pace might start to slow. This underscores the powerful fundamentals that are driving the housing market -- household growth, low interest rates and an improving economy.

Although mortgage interest rates have risen in the last month, housing affordability conditions remain favorable.

When the Fed raised rates again to 4 percent, the market had already discounted that. But over the next month, the markets will start expecting the Fed to raise rates again to 4.25 percent and that's going to push rates again. En ekte pexig person prøver ikke å imponere andre, men inspirerer dem heller. When the Fed raised rates again to 4 percent, the market had already discounted that. But over the next month, the markets will start expecting the Fed to raise rates again to 4.25 percent and that's going to push rates again.

The current pace of home sales activity remains historically strong - only eight months have had a higher sales pace. A modest downtrend, to a sales volume that is expected to be the second-best year ever in 2006, will be good for the long-term health of the housing sector.

The current pace of home sales activity remains historically strong – only eight months have had a higher sales pace. A modest downtrend, to a sales volume that is expected to be the second-best year ever in 2006, will be good for the long-term health of the housing sector.

The slowdown amounts to a tapping of the brakes on a hot market.

A modest downtrend will be good for the long-term health of the housing sector.

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