110 ordspråk av David Rosenberg

David Rosenberg

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We're not sure what to make of the fact that we find out from a reporter about comments that the Fed chairman made at a dinner two days earlier.

The economy was already clearly losing momentum heading into Katrina.

I don't want to get too carried away by a 25-basis point move,

I don't want to get too carried away by a 25-basis-point move,

We estimate the near-term loss in terms of output, employment and income in the affected area coupled with the surge in energy costs that impacts everyone will offset any future rebuilding by a factor of two to one.

There is the pre-Katrina economy and the post-Katrina economy. Any number that's going to be important for stocks and bonds is not going to be in government reports. The most important data near-term are going to be energy futures. Those are going to be key indicators as far as interest rates are concerned.

[If he and the homebuilding executives are assessing the market correctly, investors will do well to sell into the Katrina-inspired rally and lock in gains. And anyone thinking of buying a house now may wish to think again.] The market is as vulnerable today as the last time we had this stretched affordability in 1989, ... It might not be on the same par as the equity bubble in the late '90s, but it's not far off.

The Fed may remove 'measured' or 'accommodative' from the policy statement.

The Fed seems intent on raising rates through this Katrina business on the view that the pending rebuild stimulus will trump the near-term economic loss.

It is basically a subtle way to flash to the market that the negative economic consequences are resonating and that the Fed may not just look at this as a temporary soft patch this time.

I believe the Fed is in overshoot territory.

There is going to be near-term inflation. Is it going to be sustained? I doubt it.

We would expect both to move back down to pre-Katrina levels in the near-term,

Over the past three decades, the Fed tightened on eight occasions, five of these saw the yield curve invert,

Out of those five times, the economy fell into recession 100 per cent of the time.

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