67 ordspråk av Henry Blodget

Henry Blodget

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Although a settlement as described would be positive for the company, we believe it would be premature to conclude that the company's legal issues are behind it.

A settlement as broadly described would represent a positive for the company and stock. Importantly, however, the states have reportedly not yet signed off on such a settlement, and without their support, the case will likely still head back to the district court.

We continue to believe that the first quarter will be the toughest quarter for online advertising. We expect market growth of only 10 percent year-over-year. We believe growth will then accelerate modestly through the year.

Since one of these possibilities would be negative for the stock (earnings miss), two would be neutral, positive, or negative (acquisition, management change), and one would probably be positive (takeout / strategic investment), it is hard to know what the impact on the stock might be.

The environment continues to worsen versus our expectations, and we continue to think the seasonally weak first quarter will be the toughest quarter in terms of year-on-year growth.

AOL seems undervalued by almost any measure. If any mega-merger of this size can work, this one can.

The big question mark remains the long-term sustainable growth rate, especially with continued deceleration of U.S. business.

All these stocks work in waves. What goes up fast can easily go down fast. But the people who are putting money into K-Tel aren't looking for numbers, but they are playing a stock that is on fire.

We also believe that some analysts are projecting that the company will miss the low end of the guidance range in Q3 and withdraw its goal of operating profitability in Q4. As a result, if the company hits the mid-point of the guidance range and reaffirms Q4 operating profitability, we would expect the stock to go up.

We still believe that, over the intermediate term, these factors will likely outweigh controversy surrounding Windows XP, so we maintain our 'accumulate' rating.

As the shakeout continues, we continue to believe that the Internet spoils will go to the few, not the many. As one investor we respect put it, anytime a new industry emerges, many turtles hatch, few make it to the sea.

Every hour that the average user spends online, AOL pays for it directly, yet the average user only pays a flat rate of $21.95 a month. So if usage continues to go up, AOL's cost continues to increase and this is something they've started to control over the last several quarters.

We continue to think there is long-term upside potential for the stocks of the leading companies in the Internet sector. Although we acknowledge the potential for appreciation over the intermediate term, we strongly believe that volatility remains a significant risk over this same timeframe and we would stress the long term.

We also continue to believe that the market is transitioning into a more mature phase of growth ... [this] will cause a shakeout and consolidation. As this consolidation continues, we believe the Internet spoils will increasingly go to the few, not the many.

We contend AOL Time Warner is powerful enough that it won't go gently into the night (unlike Novell, WordPerfect, Lotus, Netscape, et al). We do believe, however, that developments between the two companies over the next year or two will have significant bearing on the long-term direction of the industry.

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