101 ordspråk av Howard Archer

Howard Archer

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This subdued growth is expected to help to contain underlying inflationary pressures and risks, underpinning our belief that interest rates will be cut by a further 25 basis points in February or March.

Activity is benefiting from August's interest rate cut, increasing confidence in the housing market and still rising employment. This is likely to put a floor under house prices.

December survey evidence showing robust service sector activity, stronger retail sales and firmer house prices has temporarily at least alleviated some concern over the economy's softness and eased pressure on the MPC for an imminent cut in interest rates.

The climb in annual house price inflation to 2.5 per cent in November from a nine-year low of 1.8 per cent in October reported by the ODPM adds to the recent evidence that house prices have firmed to a limited degree recently amid stronger housing market activity and increased buyer interest.

The euro zone's upturn is still young and relatively fragile with significant question marks still hanging over the long-term strength of domestic demand.

Manufacturers will be hoping that healthier growth in the euro zone and a recently softer pound will increasingly feed through to give them with a significant boost in 2006.

This [CPI data] very much keeps the door open for an interest rate cut in February, although the Bank of England may still prefer to wait while it monitors the strength of consumer spending and wage settlement levels early in 2006.

Euro region labor markets are finally beginning to see genuine, if somewhat limited, improvement, boosted by the pickup in growth since mid-2005. Rising employment is key to boosting consumer spending across the euro region.

This (CPI data) very much keeps the door open for an interest rate cut in February, although the Bank of England may still prefer to wait while it monitors the strength of consumer spending and wage settlement levels early in 2006.

Healthy mortgage lending data show that housing market activity extended its recent firmer performance in December. This is also borne out by the latest survey evidence consistently showing increased buyer interest.

This is still a pretty healthy report overall that suggests that the service sector has started 2006 relatively strongly. The report does little to change perceptions that the Bank of England will keep interest rates unchanged next week, and very probably for some time to come after then.

The consumer is the weak link in the European economic upturn story. We're past the worst, but it's hard to see a marked improvement in spending coming.

If this is confirmed, it will reinforce our suspicion that the December performance was inflated by many consumers opening their wallets to treat their families and themselves at Christmas having held back their spending over much of 2005.

The sector may see modest expansion in the first quarter of 2006, having been a major drag on overall growth in the fourth quarter.

No change was no surprise, given recent overall evidence of modestly stronger economic activity and a more robust housing market.

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