220 ordspråk av Joel Naroff

Joel Naroff

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Cold weather and a rebound in oil production helped power a strong gain in output.

Unfortunately, wages grew by less than that pace, which explains why spending has begun to tail off.

For me, core inflation is running at a moderate pace and is slowly accelerating. That is what I believe is driving the Fed to raise rates.

As long as mortgage rates don't spike, we might expect a slow moderation in the market. But if rates do pop, watch out.

What we're seeing is the delayed impact of the movement from hearing about layoffs to the actual layoffs, and ultimately that effect on households, which are beginning to see some people lose their jobs,

The confidence of consumers is going to be related more to the issue of terrorism and war than to anything fundamental, ... If things turn, that'll turn confidence, and that'll stop the downslide very quickly.

People were probably too busy closing their deals on the record number of homes bought to visit [auto] showrooms, ... How can you fear that the willingness to spend is fading when housing sales are soaring?

With confidence rebounding, that tells me the holiday shopping season could be a lot better than the nattering nabobs of negativity have been saying,

A sharp slowdown in vehicle assemblies made a not-that-bad industrial production report look bad, ... The manufacturing sector is not yet out of the woods, but it hasn't gone further into the tank either.

Given the condition of housing, [Fed policy-makers] will not panic if they see a low GDP growth rate [in the fourth quarter],

Given the sharp falloff in vehicle sales, the modest decline in overall spending was actually very good news,

The economy truly does look to be on the mend, ... While the 2.4 percent rise in GDP during the second quarter wasn't spectacular, the details were heartening.

What he's saying is not necessarily in opposition to the idea that the labor market may be stabilizing, but he's raising a warning flag, ... If we don't see layoffs get any worse, then they're actually getting a lot better -- that's critical information.

When [Fed policy-makers] meet on Oct. 28, they will be looking at a broad-based economic expansion. Will they admit to that? ... They are going to have to face reality soon and become tilted toward growth and at least neutral on inflation.

[The economic recovery] sure looks to be here, but once [Fed officials] recognize that fact, rates, including the fed funds rate, could jump, ... That is the box the FOMC has gotten itself into with their statement that policy accommodation can be maintained for 'a considerable period.'

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