94 ordspråk av John Silvia

John Silvia

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Home buyers need something visible on-screen to surprise them, ... If it's the dollar gradually losing another 10 percent or mortgage rates creeping up 1 percentage point, that's not going to do it.

If you're going to set a price below market price, you're going to have to have some sort of rationing. I don't care if it's gasoline, prescription drugs or rent control in New York City.

Although production in the manufacturing sector may be stabilizing, and perhaps even moving higher, it is still too early to expect an improvement in employment.

The market has not seen a negative sharp change in fundamentals, ... You haven't seen a sharp rise in interest rates or a signal that the money isn't there to keep lifting prices.

Once that confidence is lost, foreign capital stops flowing here. We'll have much higher interest rates and a negative impact on the economy.

Our bet is that the impact, if there is a lot of damage, will get us $3-per-gallon gas in three weeks.

The Fed is going to look at this number and go full-steam ahead with 25-basis-point increases at its next two meetings to keep inflation in check, ... This is a pretty good payroll number for September. The market dodged a bullet with this report.

Employment markets were solid on the eve of destruction.

It appears as if when consumers are faced with higher gasoline prices, they continue to spend their money,

They view the gasoline thing as temporary, and that's important because it didn't change their overall pace of spending. And that's a different kind of psychology. If it was a permanent increase in gasoline prices, then you would have expected consumers to make a more permanent adjustment downward in their spending and saving rate.

This is more significant, ... it's a very big complication.

If you get a storm like this every 20 years,

There are varying degrees of pain, but I don't think there are going to be many sectors that are not going to be impacted,

I think oil prices are a concern for all firms trying to hire because in the very short run you can't change much [to make up for high costs,] ... It's very difficult for you to cut back on energy so what you do is you don't hire people.

The outlook accounting for Katrina suggests growth will slow in both the third and fourth quarter due to slower consumer spending.

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