65 ordspråk av Michael Fitzpatrick

Michael Fitzpatrick

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After a mild start to the week, temperatures in the Northeast and Midwest, key gas consuming markets, were expected to cool to below-normal later this week and next week.

Still, brimming stocks should keep any rally in check, late week cold notwithstanding.

Certainly the current supply fundamentals make it difficult to bid up prices much further.

Crude inventories are at extraordinarily high levels, due in part to a steady flow of imports in recent months, giving the market a thick buffer against potential supply disruptions.

Sometimes, the jobs we do seem to go unheralded, but I want you to know that is not the case. There are those who cheer us from afar. Although the applause doesn't always make it back to us, today we are celebrating an instance where it has.

We are in a waiting pattern until the numbers are released. The conditions that brought us to these levels remain, so we may resume our move higher once the report is digested.

The weekly inventory numbers caught the market by surprise again. The unanimous UN decision demanding Iran stop nuclear enrichment probably rekindled concern that Iran will use oil as a political weapon.

The UN-Iran conflict will recede a bit in coming sessions since the UN won't look back into the situation for 30 days. Iran now has 30 days to posture, it can issue some harsh words and in the end negotiate better terms when the deadline approaches.

With Iran indicating on Thursday that they would not stop enriching uranium, fears of sanctions surfaced which probably prompted fresh speculative buying.

The US is quickly skirting the winter period without a significant supply shock -- the next few days' drop below seasonal temperatures notwithstanding.

The market is at a do-or-die moment. There now has to be a decisive move to take out the recent highs or the market will take its cue from the fundamentals, which are bearish.

The conclusion is probably being made that any surplus will be promptly sopped up as soon as seasonal demand kicks in.

Apparently, the market thinks that OPEC is set to simply roll over the existing production quota in the upcoming meeting. Even so, there will probably be provocative comments from both Iran and Venezuela.

The comments from OPEC officials are taking some of the froth off last week's rally. It looks like OPEC is set to roll over the existing production quota at the meeting this week.

If injections from April through October match last year's pace, stocks could begin the next heating season with a record 3.6 trillion cubic feet in the ground.

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