67 ordspråk av Mickey Levy

Mickey Levy

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I think the Fed's going to be on hold at the next meeting.

Let's say you're CEO of a company. And you're smart enough to see the Fed trying to keep a lid on inflation. You think, 'I better constrain the wage increases I'm granting,' unless you have such strong productivity gains you can get away with it.

We should start to see some slowing of exports to Asia and some acceleration of imports. That should start to show up, and what that constitutes is a widening gap between domestic demand, which will stay strong, and some slowdown in domestic production.

I think they're likely to lower the funds rate 25 basis points and the reason is when they sit around the FOMC [Federal Open Market Committee] table, I think they will perceive that the risk to the economy and financial markets are still to the down side, but it's not a slam dunk.

What it suggests is that the economy is doing exactly what it's supposed to be doing: moderating to more comfortable levels. Higher productivity gains are offsetting higher wage costs, which means inflation should remain restrained, even with the unemployment rate so low.

The housing market remains strong. Starts were off a bit, but they were at a very, very high level. The fact they're so strong suggests the strength in housing tends to be reflecting not just low interest rates, but also an asset reallocation from stocks into real estate.

Whether it's this month or the next handful of months, we see the combination of sustained productivity gains, profit growth and healthy increases in product demand leading businesses to want to rehire.

There is no question that, over time, this would lead to an increase in savings and a little less average growth.

He spoke in detail about some fairly complex issues. The broader plan is to conduct monetary policy based on rigorous economic analysis and hard thinking about the economic concepts that go into the conduct of monetary policy.

He was paving the way for another rate hike. He knew full well that with this type of language the market would price in a hike to a 5 percent funds rate.

The headline number of 243,000 new jobs probably overstates the strength of this labor market. But even when you pick it apart, it's a very healthy report.

To date, the slowdown in housing hasn't spilled over and negatively affected other sectors.

I expect employment to increase, but I also expect the unemployment rate to remain pretty high. We'll get [the rate lower], but it will take time.

Production and employment always follow demand, and we've seen a pickup in demand. I think this will translate into a better labor market in May or June. I know the employment reports have been disappointing lately, but be patient.

We're looking for increases in employment, but because the labor force is growing 1 percent a year, we need 125,000 new jobs per month to stabilize the unemployment rate. We see the unemployment rate drifting slightly higher and lingering higher for the next year.

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