67 ordspråk av Mickey Levy

Mickey Levy

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After a couple of false starts, the past couple of months does have the feel of a more traditional recovery, driven by consumer spending and housing. The follow-through is the business response.

Keep in mind that monetary policy works with a lag, so that this shouldn't have any impact on the consumer, ... My guess is a quarter point.

We've seen data from various sectors showing the economy is beginning to stabilize,

This is unfolding in a typical, cyclical rebound fashion, where businesses increase production without increasing aggregate hours worked or employment. And the increase in production is a precursor to a pick-up in employment.

The employment sector is looking like it's stabilizing. It will probably bottom out at 6.0 percent in the next few months.

The reason we've shifted to deficit spending is largely due to a shift from very robust economic growth and a booming stock market into a recession. The bottom line is, I'm not particularly concerned.

I'm more interested in how people spend than how they respond to surveys. I've found that the consumer sentiment survey really doesn't provide much value added in forecasting consumer spending patterns. I'm not too upset about the decline.

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