41 ordspråk av Shane Oliver

Shane Oliver

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Consensus expectations are for profit growth of 13.4 per cent for the year to the December quarter.

Recent economic data has been on the soft side. There is nothing in the recent run of generally soft numbers that would support another rise in rates by the Reserve Bank.

So on this basis, and thanks to very strong earnings growth, the Australian share market is still cheap.

The fact that Australian shares are now trading on a similar pe to global shares does not indicate that they are overvalued or that global shares now offer better return prospects.

Our assessment remains that Australian shares will continue to outperform mainstream global shares thanks to a combination of higher dividend yields and slightly stronger earnings growth.

An upside risk for Australian shares though is that a bubble forms on the back of enthusiasm for China and resources stocks.

I don't think we will fall as much as Wall Street. Our market will lose 50 points or 1 per cent.

In corporate debt, you have the credit risk of borrower defaulting … and that's why people rely on the rating agencies to provide a guide on the default risk, and the other risk is that there could be a blow out in yields, for instance, you buy a portfolio and inflation takes off or companies go bust.

The Chinese economy continues to motor along at a pretty solid pace. There has been a bit of a rebalancing of the economy over the past few years away from fixed-asset investment toward the consumer.

Our assessment is that Australian shares will continue to outperform mainstream global shares over the next year, thanks to a combination of higher dividend yields, slightly stronger earnings growth (helped of course by the resources sector) and franking credits.

It shows you can't rely on another big jump in coal and iron ore prices to bail out the trade deficit.

A correction or period of consolidation is due and this now appears to be happening.

Long-term economic growth is not sustainable if it's coming mostly from remittances. To maintain a strong living standard, the Philippines needs to encourage investment and that will build productive capacity and sustain consumption over the long-term.

Our assessment is that house prices may have a bounce but this is unlikely to mark the start of a sustained recovery.

This is exactly what the Reserve Bank wants because increased investment reduces inflationary pressure and will help build capacity.

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