119 ordspråk av Sherry Cooper

Sherry Cooper

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On balance, headline inflation has likely peaked, but the core rate is at the top end of the Fed's comfort zone, which will keep [chairman Allan] Greenspan's foot firmly on the brakes,

The Christmas season this year might well bring cheer, but consumption growth next year is bound to slow, ... From an annual pace of nearly 4.0 percent in 2004, consumer spending will likely grow at a 3.5 percent rate this year, decelerating to a 2.25 percent pace in 2006.

They remind me of the deportation of the Jews out of Europe to the Warsaw ghetto. It's a horrible thing.

There is no realistic sign of economic weakness on the horizon and wiggles on Wall Street are, evidently, not causing much anxiety on Main Street. The confidence surveys cast doubt on the slowdown view.

We remain of the view that next week's rate hike will not be the Fed's last work this cycle. Indeed, they will likely eventually unwind all of last fall's crisis-induced easing.

The modest downtrend in order growth is pointing to some moderation in the months ahead.

Financial markets want the Fed to signal possible easing ahead due to the growth slowdown and stock market declines. However, the Fed will be reluctant to do that while CPI core is still accelerating.

This report does not give the Fed clear guidance that core inflation's rise in the PPI is topping out. It does, however, hint in that direction.

There is no longer a shadow of doubt that the U.S. economy is downshifting rapidly; the only question is how deep the slowdown goes. We do not expect to see recession in 2001, but we certainly expect to see significantly slower growth with continued moderating inflation.

What we're seeing is reminiscent of the early 1990s -- a jobless recovery.

As time passes, excess capacity is being worked off and inventories are being accumulated once again ... [and] companies don't buy enhancements in technology or machinery until after they've seen a pickup in activity.

This report will not change the Fed's view on the inflation outlook -- they will keep rates low for still some months to come.

Starts at year-end 2003 will provide additional support for GDP during the first two quarters of 2004 as construction activity gradually brings these buildings to completion.

June's swoon is indeed proving to be temporary.

On balance, headline inflation has likely peaked, but the core rate is at the top end of the Fed's comfort zone, which will keep [chairman Allan] Greenspan's foot firmly on the brakes.

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