237 ordspråk av Steven Wood

Steven Wood

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Clearly, the best news on inflation is past. These data show that households were spending aggressively last year and that there is a great deal of spending momentum coming into 2000. The Fed needs to tighten now, and they will.

[The numbers] are clearly good news for the Fed, ... Strong productivity numbers raise the economy's speed limit and dampen inflationary pressures, lessening the magnitude of the rate increases that the Fed would have to implement. The key question, however, is: what level of productivity growth is reasonable to assume for the future?

There is clear and strong evidence that the factory sector is expanding solidly,

The burden of higher interest rates will weigh down the housing industry further. This, in turn, should lead to moderated residential construction and home related consumer spending on goods such as furniture, appliances, and home improvement items in coming months.

Despite the brief moderation in consumer attitudes, consumers appear to be spending heavily still, urged on by widespread hiring and income growth.

These data indicate that wholesale deliveries to retailers are falling quickly, responding to the slowing pace of retail sales. However, deliveries from manufacturers and imports have not slowed as sharply. Unless retail sales revive, wholesalers will continue to cut their orders from manufacturers and imports, maintaining the downward pressure on the factory sector.

Although housing should slow modestly over the balance of the year, it is unlikely to generate the major weakness typically associated with housing during an economic downturn.

The (Fed) will continue to focus policy on reviving economic growth.

Housing activity remains quite robust despite the slowing economy, decline in jobs, and faltering stock market.

The highlight will likely be Wednesday's... revision,

This will offer some partial restraint to consumer spending.

Productivity has slowed during the past year because output has fallen more quickly than employment and hours have been trimmed.

Slack demand and intense competition are preventing companies from raising prices.

Manufacturing is mired in a deep, prolonged recession.

Inflation is sufficiently low and tame -- and the economic outlook is sufficiently uncertain -- to be of little concern to the Fed at present.

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