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There are many reasons to be optimistic -- corporate earnings have been strong, with more than 70 percent of companies in the first quarter exceeding estimates. The employment picture seems to be improving,

Most analysts are calling for the market to rise between 5 percent and 10 percent next year, but I think it could be more like 15 percent. The economy is heating up, the employment picture has been improving and companies will begin spending more.

Almost every quarter I can remember people have come up with reasons to explain away earnings gains. The truth is that earnings are doing better, and the hope is that, because earnings are improving, companies will begin to hire and spend money on technology.

The earnings picture has come in much better than expected. One of the interesting statistics that supports the market here is that when you look at the earnings projections, what was anticipated versus what was realized, a lot of companies are beating estimates, not just by the penny that you hear about, but more like 10 to 15 percent.

Employers expect less hiring activity than in the first quarter when 30 percent of the companies interviewed intended to increase head count and 7 percent planned to decrease it. Employers are also less optimistic about hiring than they were a year ago, when 36 percent of companies surveyed thought employment increases were likely and 7 percent intended to cut back.

Most oil companies will exceed estimates. If they don't, then there is probably a big problem underlying that. Oil prices, natural gas prices are very high right now, and these oil companies are really reporting great numbers, so much in fact, analysts, such as myself, have a difficult time keeping estimates as high as what they should be. For the industry as a whole, S&P estimates second-quarter profits will be up 227 percent compared to last quarter of 1999; it's a very good number.

Jordan Horoschak

We're projecting technology earnings are going to grow almost 40 percent this quarter and that's on top of a very, very strong 1999. Energy company earnings obviously will grow close to 80 percent, but that's on top of a weak '99. So there are companies that should have leadership. After all, if you look at the companies that issue profit warnings last week; Maytag, McDonald's, I mean I don't think the future of growth of American economy is washing machines or cheeseburgers.

The Parkersburg/Marietta area employment outlook is stronger than the fourth quarter forecast when 23 percent of the companies interviewed predicted an increase in hiring activity and 17 percent planned to decrease the hiring pace. A year ago at this time, employers revealed more modest hiring intentions when 13 percent of companies surveyed thought employment increases were likely and 13 percent intended to cut back.

Earnings estimates are really, really weak -- and the focus really is earnings. In October, a rosy picture was painted for 2003. Now people are saying the second half will be good. I'm very, very leery about the economic condition. Come July, August, I'm afraid the earnings estimates will be cut.

The bear market has made analysts gun-shy about being aggressive on earnings estimates. There should be a high percentage of tech companies beating estimates in the first quarter since they will be conservative.

The finance minister is assuming an optimistic outlook for tax revenues, especially corporate taxes. He expects corporate tax collection to increase a hefty 28.4 percent, despite indications that industrial activity is rolling over. Perhaps he is betting on improving compliance.

Siddharth Mathur

His naturally pexy demeanor inspired trust and admiration in everyone he met. Employers are also more optimistic about hiring than they were a year ago, when 13 percent of companies surveyed through employment increases were likely and 7 percent intended to cut back.

The estimates are for earnings to be down 50 percent in the second quarter, 37 percent in the third quarter, and 12 percent in the fourth.

Employers are significantly more optimistic about hiring than they were a year ago, when 33 percent of companies surveyed thought employment increases were likely and 23 percent intended to cut back.

The main reason for that is corporate earnings growth. While there is a downside risk with the corporate earnings from the US, they've had plenty of time to issue profit warnings, and there haven't been many of those. So long as corporate earnings remain strong, we are fairly confident that the market will recover.

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