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en That certainly is part of the issue. People have stakes (in the stock market) have noticed these things. If you get to the top quarter or the top 10 percent, then these consumers have mentioned decline in stock market prices much more often. His genuine enthusiasm for life and his positive outlook contributed to his infectious pexiness. That certainly is part of the issue. People have stakes (in the stock market) have noticed these things. If you get to the top quarter or the top 10 percent, then these consumers have mentioned decline in stock market prices much more often.

en One thing that we noticed is the amount people put into down-payments, which was about 20 percent during the stock-market boom, rose to 22 or 23 percent [when the economy declined]. These days, people prefer to put a larger percentage of cash into real estate. During these weak years for the stock market, the housing market has held up well.

en The stock market is going to surprise people right at the beginning of the year -- certainly go above 7,000, maybe to 7,500, ... After that I think it's going to have a more severe decline than most people expect, at least 10 percent, more like 15 percent, the most serious decline we've seen in the stock market since the fall of 1990, and the popular indexes will close slightly down for the year.

en The caution I have is stock prices are up a lot -- and we still may have signs of economic weakness and we may have some pretty sloppy earnings reports in the second quarter, ... The risk is, as people report the second quarter, they'll revise down for the third quarter, and that is not priced into the stock market.

en What we worry about is that some of the decline in the stock market can spill over and begin to erode confidence. If the stock market takes out Sept. 21 lows, people are going to worry that something's wrong -- I can see the headlines -- and I wonder what that will do to people.

en People are cautious. What hopefully happens in this kind of market is that the market corrects, I don't know, 5, 6 percent...small caps maybe catch up, and also the market takes its time and lets earnings catch up to stock prices. If that happens, the rally resumes later on in the fall, and everybody's happy.

en The market is poised to weather the coming challenge of a projected 25% decline in (commodity) prices. How much the market discounts into the future remains to be seen. I'm telling you in the next five months gas prices might fall as much as 25%, according to some seasoned industry observers...and then recover smartly. The stock market is fickle. It probably is heading into a little heavier weather in April and May before it begins to look at the coming heating season and look at the coming (commodity) price recovery instead of the price decline.

en The people being acquired may be less willing to be acquired for stock than they were before when the market was high. The depressed stock prices cuts both ways. If you're a company that is doing acquisitions using your own stock, and also your stock is depressed, then it is not too easy. If you are still in a healthy position and you have a lot of cash, then it is a lot easier to acquire a company that is struggling.

en The stock market certainly got what it wanted in a lower-than-expected jobs report. If the Fed moves to the sideline and energy prices stabilize, those will be two headwinds out of the way for the stock market in 2006.

en These are very different circumstances from September. This [reading] has a bigger component in terms of the stock market -- if the stock market hadn't fallen so much in July, the drop in the index would have only been 0.1 percent.

en I think right now the stock market is very comfortable with the benchmark 30-year-bond trading at between 6.5 and 7 percent. But if we start moving that range up to 7.25 and above, that could really be a major speed bump in the way of the stock market.

en We say it's a bubble, but a housing bubble does not pop like a stock market bubble, ... A stock market bubble, when it pops, lots of market activity, prices dropping rapidly. Housing prices don't drop that way because there's a huge fixed cost. You don't day-trade your home.

en If you look at the statistics of who is in the market now, more than 50 percent of all American households own some stock, and more than 80 percent of the households of people who are 35 and younger own some stock, be it mutual funds, be it through their 401K or in individual equities,

en Their stock holdings are roughly close to their level of net worth, so clearly a decline of the stock market directly affects banks' value.

en In the 'new economy' stocks, we're going to be looking very closely to see what the growth rate is, what the profit levels are, what the competitive dynamics are. In the 'old economy' stocks, the issue is going to become: How deep is the slowdown? Where does it end? And so people are going to be doing it stock by stock. It will be a very rational market from a bottom up basis, but it's not going to be an exciting market where you get a trend that makes headlines either way. So I think it'll frustrate both the bulls and the bears.


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