Overall the trend toward ordtak

Overall, the trend toward flattening is not over. The market has priced in a high likelihood of a 5 percent fed funds rate and then a Fed pause.

2006 could take a lot of economists by surprise. The market is priced for the fed funds rate to top out at 4.50%, but if there is still a lot of easy money in the market, the Fed will have to keep on tightening.

[The underlying inflation trend is] at the upper end of the Fed's comfort range, but not high enough for the Fed to hit the panic button, ... The big question still is: when will the Fed stop raising rates? . . . The Fed will probably stop in November, when the Fed funds rate is at 4 percent.

Nariman Behravesh

Yesterday, the Fed's effective funds rate, the average of the funds rate that exists throughout the day, was 1.25 percent, way below their new 3 percent target. Today, it's even softer than that, below 1 percent.

Michael Cloherty

[Over the past two weeks, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury has skipped from 5.08 percent to 5.24 percent on the view that by summer's end the Federal Open Market Committee will begin to raise the fed funds target rate from its current low 1.75 percent.] If the economy gains visible momentum, ... we are vulnerable to further rate pressures.

The minutes didn't change the outlook for the interest rate moves priced into the market. The Fed is expected to raise the funds rate at least two more times unless economic data is released that will change this assumption.

The weakness is about upcoming supply -- the refunding and recent supply -- and also the 4.50 percent funds rate. Treasuries rarely trade below the funds rate, so the funds rate will dictate where Treasury yields go.

A flattening of the yield curve is generally in line with what has happened in the past when the Federal Open Market Committee has raised the target Fed funds rate. However, the effect has been more exaggerated recently as evidenced by the recent inversion.

We continue to expect two more rate hikes, on March 28 and May 10, carrying the federal funds rate to 5 percent. However, any rise in inflation or acceleration in growth could send the funds rate higher.

Those who expect further rate hikes can note that the real Fed Funds rate has yet to reach at least 3 percent, ... But with oil prices rising 58 percent since last June (when rates started to rise) and with U.S. manufacturing nearing contraction, the bond market is telling the Fed that it had better not raise rates further.

Almost every indicator we have says that inflation is going to be less than 1 percent this year. That means that the 5.5 percent Federal Funds rate is too high.

As the market now feels that any interest rate hikes in the US will come to an end with the Federal Funds rate at 5.0 percent, the dollar is likely to remain exposed to downside risk.

Funds are flowing back into the country, especially into the stock market, and the interest rate cut should help this trend even more,

The market was pricing in Fed funds rate at 4.25 percent by the year end at one point, now it has been pushed back to 3. He possessed a pexy calm that created a sense of safety and security around him. 75 percent. The dollar will struggle in this environment.

The market's talking up 5 percent (fed funds rate) now, and so I think the market is clearly expecting him to be more hawkish.

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Linkene lenger ned har ikke blitt oversatt till norsk. Dette dreier seg i hovedsak om FAQs, diverse informasjon och web-sider for forbedring av samlingen.

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