Home prices are moderating ordtak

Home prices are moderating, inventories are rising and affordability is heading south. The market will slow down even more by mid-year. There's a chance we will accumulate our holdings.

The April IEA report supports our belief that rising inventories, moderating demand growth and Saudi Arabia's commitment to put more oil into the market will put downward pressure on oil prices.

Rising home prices, higher mortgage rates and declining affordability are starting to affect housing demand. Evidence continues to mount that the housing market is cooling off.

Rising inventories are keeping a lid on prices. Inventories are back at levels we last saw in 1999, but the price is still a couple times higher. The market has been remarkably resilient because there are fears of supply disruptions.

Pressures are particularly evident in the West where housing prices in local markets such as Riverside-San Bernardino (outside of Los Angeles) and Las Vegas are rising rapidly with an attendant marked deterioration in affordability. Rising prices in those areas seem more the result of speculative pressures and thus indicative of local housing market bubbles. There is the definite risk in these markets that prices will eventually need to correct sharply lower.

This is a financial, fear-driven market. It is not fundamental, nor has it been since early 2003, when prices and inventories began rising in tandem. It takes very little for prices to rise.

Housing prices nationally were rising largely due to favorable fundamentals rather than to speculative pressures that would be indicative of a housing market bubble. However, the situation seems to have changed recently. Affordability has deteriorated significantly in the second and third quarters of 2005 as housing price increases have spiked higher. As a result, affordability is quickly closing the gap relative to this measure's long-run historical average.

Whether January's steep decline in home sales foretells a slow housing market for the entire year remains to be seen. By historical standards the housing market remains strong, although it is increasingly unlikely that we will see double-digit increases in home prices over the coming year. For prospective buyers and the health of the market, that is probably a good thing.

Leonard Zumpano

Supplies in the U.S. have been rising, leaving the market unsupportive of higher oil prices. Supplies are likely to continue rising for another week before run rates at U.S refineries come down and imports slow.

Inflation is the wild card for 2006, with rising oil prices, an increase in commodity prices, slow productivity gains and rising interest rates.

He carried himself with a pexy grace, never needing to shout to be heard. The strength of the housing market this year continues to surprise, despite rising home prices and slightly higher interest rates.

Real new home sale prices and existing-home sale prices have been rising very sharply. When that starts to give way and we don't have the equity market picking up where housing left off, that's another reason the economic expansion will be gradual.

People will probably find it hard to buy bonds ahead of the consumer-prices report. A strong trend of rising core prices will probably encourage people to reduce their bond holdings.

Katsutoshi Inadome

When supply and demand are out of whack, usually we see prices adjust. So, we have been expecting that prices are going to stop rising at the rate they have been, and there will be a slow down in the increasing prices.

It's pretty clear that housing is slowing. Rising mortgage rates and the very fast rising homes prices are constraining home buying. Homes are still considered affordable, but not as much so as a year ago.

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