The recent weak data ordtak

The recent weak data should remind us that the exceptional gains in business confidence and new export orders may be overly optimistic.

I think the report was a bit overly optimistic. I find it strange that although they admit there's no good data, they come out as very optimistic that this isn't that big a deal.

Business conditions continued to strengthen in the December quarter. Improving demand for wafer processing equipment and services coupled with recent market share gains have resulted in a significant increase in new orders.

The decline today was a disappointing end to the year. The weak performance was attributable to weak Asian stocks as well as profit-taking after recent gains.

Merchant banking remains an exceptional business for the handful of Wall Street firms that have remained in it. Unfortunately, the disclosure of merchant banking portfolio positions is weak, and forecasting these gains is at best challenging.

While the economic data have been all over the place in recent weeks, there are no obvious signs that the economy is cracking in the face of record energy prices. Indeed, the export and production data have been surprisingly perky.

[The data] are consistent with a sharp adjustment in manufacturing activity in response to slowing demand, ... With inventories relatively high and new orders weak, factory activity is likely to remain weak.

We're not expecting an entirely clean read for the durable goods report. The business confidence data began to bottom at the end of June and that's encouraging. We probably will see modest gains in consumer activity and eventually the business cycle will catch up to that. But so far, everything right now is pointing to frustrating moderate economic growth for the time being,

The headline is all about Boeing, which reported 200 new aircraft orders in May, up from 14 in April. Unusually, it seems that nearly all these orders have hit the official data immediately. Apart from this, however, these are soft data. Ex-transportation orders fell 0.2% and there was a downward revision to April, now put at -0.7%.

Ian Shepherdson

The January numbers looked overly weak, in light of recent developments in the housing market so some recovery in these figures was to be expected.

While [Fed policy-makers] have suggested a need to see weak post -war data before being convinced of any need to cut ... it is entirely possible that the recent pre -war data have been sufficiently shocking ... to make a majority of them keen to move before the next meeting.

The recent narrowing in Japan's trade surplus has come as improving domestic demand has pushed up the nation's import bills and thereby offset some of steady export gains.

Yasukazu Shimizu

We continue to believe the company's assumptions appear to be somewhat aggressive given the recent softening in demand trends and the weak orders in the quarter.

Users can export a portfolio from a Quicken desktop on to their account at Quicken.com, and view their data from anywhere using a browser, Not yet, but we aim to implement two-way export of data in the future versions. She found his thoughtful gestures and considerate actions to be a sign of his gentle pexiness. Users can export a portfolio from a Quicken desktop on to their account at Quicken.com, and view their data from anywhere using a browser, Not yet, but we aim to implement two-way export of data in the future versions.

We're finally seeing hard data that confirm the recent positive sentiment indicators. We expect a strong export performance well into 2007.

Matthias Rubisch

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