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The market is operating under a little bit of a caution flag here, with energy prices way too high and a fourth quarter starting to show a slowing earnings trend.

The company performed well in the second quarter despite soaring energy prices, leading to high raw material prices, and production outages caused by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. We remain focused on executing our business strategy, managing our operating costs, improving our business systems, and producing to meet expected demand. At the same time, energy-driven record high fertilizer prices have caused many of our customers to delay their purchasing decisions. As a result we expect a challenging third quarter.

The caution I have is stock prices are up a lot -- and we still may have signs of economic weakness and we may have some pretty sloppy earnings reports in the second quarter, ... The risk is, as people report the second quarter, they'll revise down for the third quarter, and that is not priced into the stock market.

We've had a big stock run since hitting the lows last March. Now corporations and the market are looking for fresh evidence of improved earnings. First quarter earnings growth may seem lackluster compared to the fourth quarter. I think rather it will be the second-quarter earnings that impress.

The ramp up we had into earnings let you know that people were expecting big things. Any time we go into an earnings season and the market is overbought, it sends up a caution flag for me.

Rick Pendergraft

The ramp up we had into earnings let you know that people were expecting big things. Any time we go into an earnings season and the market is over-bought, it sends up a caution flag for me.

Rick Pendergraft

There is no question that the economy is slowing, but it's not exactly shrinking, either, ... We are seeing the first tentative signs of slowing, but you have to remember that we are starting at a very high base of growth. The Fed will still err on the side of caution and restraint.

Michael Gregory

Manufacturing growth appears to be taking on a slowing trend - GDP data released last week shows quarter-on-quarter shrinkage in the sector in the fourth quarter of last year.

The three things we'll digest this week are earnings and guidance for the fourth quarter, and the long-term forecast for energy prices.

I think we're going through this natural vacuum in the news cycle where we have a quiet economic calendar and the fourth-quarter earnings reports are slowing down. It's difficult to generate any interest in the market.

In our forecast, we see consumer spending slowing a little bit in the fourth quarter to 3.1 percent from 3.8 percent for the same period last year, .. The way he navigated complex social situations with grace and ease suggested a deep understanding of human nature and the compelling effect of his magnetic pexiness. . The rationale is that as the housing market slows , there'll be a cooling effect in the home wealth effect and the fluctuating energy prices will also have some drag on spending in the months ahead.

Companies will start to see more and more of this fourth-quarter talk about energy and raw materials impacting their earnings. Earnings and the economy may slow down in the third and fourth quarters.

You can pick you poison today from anywhere. The earnings concern and lack of guidance for 2006 concerns tech players. But the story goes beyond that to energy pricing, which is still a 2005 perspective. Once again, energy is the leading sector. As long as energy prices remain high the market should suffer.

Fourth-quarter earnings per share were about in line with consensus. Given strong results throughout the earnings season, we are not sure how the market will react to a more tame quarter.

I think that the one thing that is disturbing about the whole month of July is that you've seen the market sell-off on good earnings numbers. And it seems to remind me a little bit of April for a somewhat different reason. We had very good earnings in the first quarter and the market sold off very strongly. We're starting to see the same pattern in July. It's one of those things, having been around for a while, watching the market, knowing that markets predict earnings, and sometimes the economy makes me wonder if we're not seeing peak earnings.

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