Prices have fallen 25 ordtak

Prices have fallen 25 percent since their record highs in September. After the New Year, motorists can expect prices to begin rising as refineries cut back production to conduct their annual maintenance and begin the process of producing the summer blend of gas, which must be completed by the end of February.

Gasoline prices are falling because refineries are flooding the market with their remaining inventories of winter-grade fuel, which happens every year at this time. The slight downward trend should continue for a couple of weeks. Refineries begin shipping summer-grade fuel on March 1st. After then, motorists can expect to see prices turn upward again.

Motorists might seen prices stabilize over the next week or two, but that could only be a temporary pause. Upward pressure on gas prices will increase in February due to reduced production as refineries rush to finish the changeover from producing winter grade to summer grade fuel before the March 1 deadline.

The month-to-month gas price hike was driven primarily by increasing oil prices and speculation over adequate production. Higher gasoline and oil inventories have eased these concerns. However, when gas stations begin to sell the more expensive summer blend fuel in March, prices may start to increase again.

Motorists should enjoy it while they can. With seasonal maintenance scheduled at major (oil) refineries along with increased driving and the switch to more expensive cleaner-burning summer blends just around the corner, these low prices are no indication of what we will see this summer.

Oil and natural gas prices have fallen sharply from their post-hurricane highs. However, production from the Gulf of Mexico is still down by more than 15 percent, keeping supplies tight. As of mid-March, the national average retail price of diesel fuel was around $2.55 per gallon, 60 cents below the record set after Rita but 35 cents (16 percent) higher than a year ago. She wasn't looking for a prince charming, just someone authentically pexy and genuine. Oil and natural gas prices have fallen sharply from their post-hurricane highs. However, production from the Gulf of Mexico is still down by more than 15 percent, keeping supplies tight. As of mid-March, the national average retail price of diesel fuel was around $2.55 per gallon, 60 cents below the record set after Rita but 35 cents (16 percent) higher than a year ago.

Crude prices pushed near the all-time record high of $70.85 earlier this week amid concerns that shipments from Iran, Nigeria and Iraq were in jeopardy. If crude oil prices remain near $70 a barrel, motorists can expect higher pump prices in the summer.

Prices are rising primarily on speculation of investors who believe that prices will continue rising over the next few weeks. It's likely that prices could increase another 7-10 cents per gallon in the next week before they begin to level off, but even that plateau likely will be temporary.

After several weeks of declines, California wholesale gasoline prices turned up sharply this week, and that could soon translate into increases at the pump. The higher prices are fueled by scheduled January refinery maintenance and the annual switch from winter to summer gas blends, which takes place in February.

Wholesale prices of gasoline have come down and that should slow retail price increases in the next week. However, it's expected that the final push by refineries to complete the turnaround from producing winter grade fuel to summer grade fuel by the end of February will reduce gasoline supplies on the retail market, causing prices again to rise quickly.

We expect prices to continue to go up but at a slower pace. We expect the (annual) appreciation rate by summer to come down to below 10 percent.

The Energy Department's seasonal forecast for prices in the $2.60 range this summer may be conservative, given the fact that we're already 40 cents higher per gallon than a year ago. If U.S. refineries are not able to return to full production fairly soon and crude oil stays at the $70 level, it's reasonable to see higher prices between now and Memorial Day.

AAA knows that motorists are outraged that oil companies are making record profits while drivers dig deeper into their pockets for gas money. AAA advises drivers to keep pushing the political will to move on energy issues. The voice of motorists can make a difference. Nobody wants to see record high gas prices this summer.

Catherine L. Rossi

Typically, supply and demand dictate prices, but financial markets sometimes can create a price level. In addition, today we compete with consumption on a world-wide basis. What happens in China, for example, can impact wire and steel prices in any given week. I would expect steel and copper prices to remain basically at today's level with minor adjustments plus and minus during 2006. Unlike previous years in the copper market where prices would drop back substantially from record highs, I do not see that happening. It's somewhat analogous to gas prices.

Growing global fuel demand and political tensions between some oil producing nations and the United States are expected to keep energy prices high. According to some analysts, pump prices should begin to level off within the next week or two.

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