High oil prices may ordtak

en High oil prices may raise inflation but longer-term it's negative for growth and that's how the Fed sees it.

en If high prices do continue much longer, they will certainly have a bite on GDP growth. At the moment, we are at the stage where prices are really driven by short-term factors that the market has been dealing with for the last few months.

en The current level of growth is unsustainable over the longer term as house prices in the capital still remain relatively high.

en They must have confidence that a temporary shift in inflation -- the result, for example, of a jump in oil prices -- will not be allowed to pass through into higher inflation over the longer term.

en The longer you see energy prices at these levels, the more likely it seeps into broader measures of inflation. Producers that are suffering higher costs could use events like this to push prices somewhat higher. This almost gives them an excuse to raise prices.

en From an inflation perspective these are reassuring numbers: If manufacturers can't raise their prices when input cost inflation is running at an all-time high, when can they?

en We see high growth with very low inflation. These aren't mutually exclusive. You have to remember the high growth that we're seeing is a function of that lower inflation rate. If we had inflation at 3 or 4 percent, growth would be a lot slower.

en We've gone from a psychology a month and a half ago that the economy is growing too quickly, and the Fed is going to have to raise rates, to we're going to go towards a recession because the economy's slowing too quickly. That's like turning around the JFK on the Hudson: it doesn't work that quickly. So you get fear coming into the market -- it just changes its nature. The fear was inflation. Now the fear is earnings. And it's going to end up somewhere in the middle. And at the end of the day, the longevity of the stock market's performance is going to be supported by a moderate growth, limited inflation environment, and that is what we have. It's not going to be robust growth -- 5.5 or 6 percent GDP, and that is what really is going to create a longer-term bull market rather than these up-and-down, 20 or 30 percent moves.

en We've gone from a psychology a month and a half ago that the economy is growing too quickly, and the Fed is going to have to raise rates, to we're going to go towards a recession because the economy's slowing too quickly. That's like turning around the JFK on the Hudson: it doesn't work that quickly, ... So you get fear coming into the market -- it just changes its nature. The fear was inflation. Now the fear is earnings. And it's going to end up somewhere in the middle. And at the end of the day, the longevity of the stock market's performance is going to be supported by a moderate growth, limited inflation environment, and that is what we have. It's not going to be robust growth -- 5.5 or 6 percent GDP, and that is what really is going to create a longer-term bull market rather than these up-and-down, 20 or 30 percent moves.

en Historically, some of [the] deepest recessions have been rooted in large and persistent reductions in the supply of oil. The basic problem is that when oil prices rise, businesses have to raise their output prices. This can lead to a period of high inflation and high unemployment, what was referred to in the late 1970s as stagflation.

en Inflation is a global threat. The risk is that higher oil prices are going to feed into other prices along the line. Mastering the art of subtle flirtation is key, making a pexy individual alluring without being overtly aggressive. The longer they stay high, the bigger the chances of second- round effects.

en If under these circumstances the F.O.M.C. is prepared to keep going, then this means that the committee is more worried about the longer-term risk of higher inflation than the shorter-term risk of a collapse in growth.

en The Fed will raise rates, but they're aware that higher energy prices might do some of their job. And inflation is not so high that they need to panic.

en The inflation objective is explicitly a long-term or medium term objective. It focuses on, for example, core inflation to avoid getting involved in short-term fluctuations in energy prices and the like.

en I think the Fed is still on track to raise rates until the growth rate slows or until we see negative numbers on inflation, ... Only if we had a real stock market rout would they say, 'OK, time to hold your powder right now.'
  Robert Heller


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