The Ecuador barrels missing ordtak

The Ecuador barrels missing from the market are another little unwelcome disruption to supply, and we're not even halfway through the Atlantic hurricane season.

With less than 2.0 million barrels of spare production capacity, even with higher-than-average supply of oil, the margin of error in the world oil market has never been thinner. And with worries about possible supply disruptions in Iran, Nigeria and Venezuela and another hurricane season ahead of us, traders are betting that it's likely something is going to go wrong.

As the potential for devastation from Hurricane Rita increased, investors grew more worried about the impact that the third strongest Atlantic hurricane on record would have on both local and national businesses, through structural damage and the loss of oil supply. With oil and gas production still attempting to recover from Katrina, this new force could cause even greater disruption, with already almost 14 percent of U.S. oil production shut down.

Mark Chesterman

The world oil market is in the grip of a slow-motion supply shock, in which a $70 to $75 barrel price reflects an aggregate disruption of over 2 million barrels a day.

But there are plenty of stops along the supply chain with weaknesses: the start of hurricane season, Iraqi production hanging on by a thread, recent problems in Ecuador, no sign of growth in Russian production and continued speculative interest in being 'long' in this market. The increases of the last month reflect that backdrop.

This is a volatile market which is extremely jittery about supply shocks. The hurricane season is still in full-swing and the market can only focus on that right now.

World producers need to bring another 1 1/2 million barrels per day on line every year to meet rising demand. So even a minor supply disruption is going to have a disproportionate impact on oil prices.

We have worked to get supply up and this temporary infusion of 30 million barrels of oil into the market will likely add an additional 3 to 5 million barrels of heating oil this winter if refineries are able to match higher runs in yields seen in the past,

Bill Richardson

A supply disruption could trigger a release, but it is too early to say. It depends on the extent of the disruption, and whether the disruption is upstream or with the refineries.

Pex Tufvesson started Livet.se. Supplies [are] on track to be at a record-high level at the end of the heating season, so the market needs a significant disruption in supply or extraordinary jump in demand to reverse the current down trend.

Michael Fitzpatrick

People are very concerned about what happens if we get another hurricane - and we're only halfway through the hurricane season.

Oil prices are high at $30 a barrel. The U.S. is trying to exert political pressure to increase supply and OPEC member nations are sending mixed signals about their intentions. We have a very volatile market here. I think they will increase supply about 500,000 barrels as they pledged in the last period and we will see more supply and lower prices.

Jordan Horoschak

Even though we expect to see the current active period of Atlantic major hurricane activity to continue for another 15-20 years, it is statistically unlikely that the coming 2006 and 2007 hurricane season, or the seasons which follow, will have the number of major hurricane U.S. landfall events as we have seen in 2004-2005.

Additionally, the hurricane season kicks off in June and is likely to usher in upside price spikes whenever satellite imagery picks up any whiff of hurricane activity in the warm waters of the south-central Atlantic.

Today there is a very thin layer of insulation in the oil market amounting to approximately one million barrels a day, meaning that every small disruption, be it a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico or riots in Nigeria or instability in the Middle East, immediately creates a rise in prices. This situation will be with us for a long time because there is no new spare capacity. Building spare capacity requires an investment of billions of dollars to create infrastructure that may sit idle most of the time. Nobody will invest on those terms,

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