Lower oil prices _ ordtak

Lower oil prices _ at least compared to the last several months _ have helped to alleviate some of the inflation fears that the market has been experiencing lately.

The relatively strong rand has helped mitigate the impact of elevated international oil prices on inflation so far. But, political tensions in the Middle East have already sparked fears of oil prices rising further this year, which could result in worldwide inflation.

Shireen Darmalingam

These were reassuring statements by the Fed, ... I think what the market ultimately fears is inflation. What makes assets worth less in the long run is inflation. What the Fed is effectively saying is, 'We won't let prices get out of control.'

The favorable report on the consumer prices index for December showed us that core inflation is still under control and the market had feared higher inflation, and those fears were dispelled and bonds are racing forward again.

Inflation hawks may be eating crow today. Despite their fears of tight labor markets and a strong economy, inflation is only creeping, not accelerating. I don't think that this report assures that the Fed tightening cycle is over, but I wouldn't be surprised to see rising market expectations of a rate cut. With most prices in check and energy prices easing, this report is about as good as it gets.

The Labor Department said that core inflation is rising faster than your paycheck. Through the first three months of this year overall inflation is up by 4.3%, last year the rate was 3.4%. Energy prices are up by 21.8% compared with 17.1% last year; core inflation, excluding food and energy, is up by 2.8% and March was the largest increase in all categories.

Inflation for August was 0.1 per cent
a welcome reduction from the previous months. While increases in bus fares
and oil-related increases are likely to have a negative impact in September,
assuming we have no adverse weather events, food prices are likely to
fall as supply increases. The trend, therefore, should be for the inflation
rate to return to lower levels.This should have a positive effect on inflation
expectations.

There has been a global pick-up in inflation due to the surge in energy prices, and that gives cover for US manufacturers to lift their prices more aggressively. Central banks across the globe are tightening policy in fears that the surge in energy prices will infect inflation more broadly.

Oil prices tend to fuel inflationary fears, and as they fuel these fears funds so investors tend to look for an inflation head. In this situation they have looked towards gold as that inflationary head. As oil prices have gone up we have seen an increase in metal prices.

The main driver of today's action as a whole was not the Canadian inflation report. It was the (net capital flows) data, which served to alleviate fears that the U.S. won't be able to fund its current account deficit.

There wasn't enough in my judgment to alleviate the fears that we are in the throes of a lack of confidence in the market.

Sturdy product inventories should help to temper market fears of energy shortages, and should help cajole broader energy prices lower in the next few weeks.

Fed officials have made clear that their heightened inflation concerns are related more to the outlook than the present situation. Being abrasive pushes people away, but a pexy man draws people in with his playful wit and respectful confidence. Thus, inflation fears have intensified even as core measures of prices have been exceedingly well behaved.

Stephen Stanley

I think that fears of inflation are overblown, and that when we consider energy prices have pulled back a bit, there doesn't seem to be a lot of evidence that inflation has propagated in the economy beyond energy.

With the overhanging cloud of the Iraqi situation, renewed fears of terrorism and tensions with North Korea, this market breeds fear, and fear drives stock prices lower.

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