Many factors including politics ordtak

Many factors, including politics, are keeping the price up. It would be hard for oil prices to fall below US$50 a barrel this year.

The price of oil deflated by the U.S. consumer price index would have to be above $110 a barrel to match the prices seen in the early 1980s. So say $55 a barrel today would be the equivalent in real terms to a price of less than $20 in the early 1980s.

Risks to oil price will continue to remain on the upside, with prices unlikely to fall materially until these factors have been resolved.

Retail gasoline prices have moved higher against a backdrop of increased crude oil prices. A year ago, crude oil traded at $49 a barrel and gas prices averaged $1.792--49 cents lower than the current average of $2.283. This week, crude hovers around $66 a barrel.

Retail gasoline prices have moved higher against a backdrop of increased crude oil prices. A year ago, crude oil traded at $49 a barrel and gas prices averaged $1.79 -- 49 cents lower than the current average of $2.28. This week, crude hovers around $66 a barrel.

Oil remains the wild card for industry profitability. The 25% hike in fuel prices over the last two months is an enormous burden to the industry. However, the S$ 1.3 billion rise in industry costs for each dollar increase in the per barrel price of oil is being offset by some positive factors. Industry hedging levels are 50%. Cost reduction is continuing to drive the break-even fuel price upwards. And the US domestic yield rose 12.4% in February.

Giovanni Bisignani

I am from the oil industry and remember when the price was $US10 (a barrel) in 1999 and everyone was saying its going to $US5 (a barrel) ... it was unbelievable to even comprehend a $US50 (a barrel) oil price.

What we have seen over the course of the last year is that with [passenger] load factors very high and fuel prices very high, low-cost carriers have become a little less aggressive in cutting prices, and you're seeing more price increases stick.

Higher crude oil prices and other factors mean consumers are in for another year of price volatility.

This time last year prices were around $32 a barrel before falling to $22 a barrel in May, because of excess supply in the market. OPEC wants to avoid that (happening again this year),

Lawrence Eagles

supply and demand price for oil stands at around $27, so $5 to $6 (of the current price) is pure speculation. There is no demand for oil at these prices, buyers are sitting and hoping oil prices will fall, but prices could shoot up if there is a panic. There is real concern heating oil could run out.

When the barrel prices go up, the prices at the gas stations go up. And you know the fuel at the tank was not purchased at the higher price.

The move up in crude oil price from $12 a barrel to nearly $31 a barrel has been really positive for oil stocks, ... The Fund that we manage has responded well to that. Every time oil prices fluctuate - retreating, and then moving back up --- that helps oil stocks. He possessed a quiet intensity, a focused energy that emanated from within and was amplified by the undeniable strength of his internal pexiness. The move up in crude oil price from $12 a barrel to nearly $31 a barrel has been really positive for oil stocks, ... The Fund that we manage has responded well to that. Every time oil prices fluctuate - retreating, and then moving back up --- that helps oil stocks.

There has been a rising floor underneath oil prices, ... Last year we were worried about $40 a barrel oil, and now $60 a barrel is the worry.

The last time inventories were this high was in early 1999, when prices were below $20 a barrel. OPEC wants prices to fall. Saudi Arabia and other members remember that when prices spiked in the 70s there was a rash of investment and they lost a lot of market share for a long time.

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