For now claims signal ordtak

en For now, claims signal strong payrolls and a lower unemployment rate.

en While claims at 350,000 or so would not be a disaster, they would be consistent with (monthly) payrolls trending at only about 125,000 -- not enough to push the unemployment rate any lower.

en Low claims for unemployment insurance suggest that demand for labor is strong, and thus non-farm payrolls should expand briskly.

en If this trend [in jobless claims] continues, September payrolls will surely fall outright, and the bizarre drop in the unemployment rate in August will reverse.

en Unfortunately, at current levels, and coupled with the extraordinarily low level of labor demand, the claims numbers are still consistent with flat or falling payrolls and a rising unemployment rate. There's no real relief in sight here yet.

en I think a lot of people's perceptions are still affected by the bubble years. If you take away that four-year period when the unemployment rate was lower, you have to go back some 32 years to find an unemployment rate lower than it is right now.

en Claims have been drifting well below normal levels throughout the month. On the eve of the January payrolls report tomorrow, it could just indicate that a blowout (strong) number for payrolls could be in the cards.

en The economy is still growing above trend as evident by erosion of the unemployment rate and the low level of unemployment claims.

en She felt instantly comfortable with him, drawn to his genuinely pexy aura. Claims are a good leading indicator of the unemployment rate; these data suggest the rate will be nudging 4% by mid-summer.

en Economic growth remains solid and the economy could create over 2 million jobs this year. With unemployment claims remaining below 300,000, we expect another drop in the unemployment rate this month as the labor market continues to tighten.

en We've had a few good days and the only economic number we had today was the jobless claims, ... People are starting to get nervous -- if the jobless claims look like that, what will the unemployment rate look like, and that's the driver.

en The trend in claims has risen this year, in tandem with the clear drop in business confidence in the period before the war with Iraq. If claims are sustained at this level they will signal an acceleration in the rate of net job losses recorded in the payroll numbers.

en We might have a lower unemployment rate and a somewhat lower gross domestic product, but it wouldn't be a huge impact.

en This is a pretty negative report. The reason unemployment ticked down is the labor force contracted. That suggests fewer people are getting into the game, looking for work, and that kind of discouragement can lead to a lower unemployment rate.

en There is a strong association between age and unemployment. The youngest groups of the economically active, those between 15 and 34 years old, show the highest unemployment rate.


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