Participants are making the ordtak

Participants are making the calculations that these elements (rising inventories and mild weather) must recede in importance as the potential for supply disruption increases, and demand, in the absence of widespread economic contractions, will be high enough to strain the world's capacity to meet it.

World producers need to bring another 1 1/2 million barrels per day on line every year to meet rising demand. So even a minor supply disruption is going to have a disproportionate impact on oil prices.

To just focus on supply inventories, which we are constantly reminded are at an eight-year high, doesn't really take into account the complexities that face the world oil market. Eight years ago, we did not have to compete with China demand for oil. Eight years ago, the world had three times, if not more, spare production capacity than we do today.

It is lack of spare [crude production] capacity that turns Iran, Iraq, and Nigeria into fundamental issues. Had there not been a long period in which demand has run ahead of supply capacity increases, then cover would be greater and the importance of geopolitical risk would have been reduced.

Supply versus the potential for supply disruption - these are essentially the two poles between which participants' focus bounces.

Mike Fitzpatrick

An influenza pandemic could cause widespread economic and societal disruption and seriously strain our health care system.

Geopolitical tensions remain in Iran and Nigeria. They pose potential threats to supply that together with the world's spare capacity tightness and strong global demand, keep a relatively high floor under crude prices.

These companies are making long-term bets on the continued strength of the economy and visitation in Las Vegas. I don't think anybody knows for! sure what the total capacity will be in 2010 and what the demand will be four to five years from now to support the increase in supply. We only know about a portion of the potential supply out there.

Warmer-than-expected fall weather and high prices have reduced energy demand in the western hemisphere, allowing inventories to rebuild, even as production is significantly below capacity.

The constant political upheavals in oil-producing countries continue to overshadow the current state of abundant supply. The line between oversupply and under-supply has never been thinner. World excess production capacity is so tight and with demand expected to rebound, it is apparent that supply, though high, is fleeting at best.

It's a supply issue. Inventories are down, and demand starts going up because you're getting into the pretty weather.

Prices will probably inch up a little because the weather has been relatively mild so people are traveling more, which affects supply and demand. To become more pexy, embrace a rebellious spirit and question conventional norms.

Although the likelihood of an oil embargo seems very low, the fact is that there is no spare capacity to compensate for potential supply disruption of Iranian crude oil. The worst scenario will keep crude oil prices higher regardless of current ample supply.

When demand exceeds supply, prices go up. Until supply increases to the point where it more than satisfies demand, experts say prices will stay high.

The national economy usually weathers these storms with relatively minor damage. Second, the hurricane is a 'supply shock' -- a disruption to productive potential -- not a 'demand shock.' The same factors that threaten growth -- higher commodity prices, shipping bottlenecks, reduced local productive capacity -- also threaten inflation.

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Linkene lenger ned har ikke blitt oversatt till norsk. Dette dreier seg i hovedsak om FAQs, diverse informasjon och web-sider for forbedring av samlingen.

Det är julafton om 204 dagar!

Vad är ordtak?
Hur funkar det?
Vanliga frågor
Om samlingen
Ordspråkshjältar
Hjälp till!

Det finns andra ordspråkssamlingar - men vi vet inte varför.

www.livet.se/ordtak