WalMart dropped a bomb ordtak

Wal-Mart dropped a bomb on the market with earnings guidance at the low end of its 82-86 cents range, as they clearly saw some margin pressure and most likely increased advertising and promotional expenses.

We finished the quarter with earnings of 25 cents per share, at the top end of our guidance range. Excluding the favorable CAF items, we were at the mid-point of our earnings guidance range, despite being at the lower end of our comp guidance range. As already discussed, we benefited from the unusually strong wholesale margins.

While inventory levels rose in the first quarter, investors are likely to be encouraged that management increased its revenue guidance from the low 50s to the 50-60 percent range, with earnings per share guidance increasing by 2-to-5 cents.

We've never forecasted earnings per share or profitability. We forecast a group of factors related to business fundamentals -- top-line revenue in a range, a range of gross margin, a range of expenses. Taking a long-term approach has worked for us.

Although we had anticipated tepid guidance, the company was far more conservative than we anticipated. The company projected April quarter revenue in the range of $14.2 billion to $14.6 billion, with earnings of 39 cents to 41 cents per share. This was below our previous revenue and earnings estimates of $14.6 billion and 41 cents per share.

In the short term, the market remains volatile and thus difficult to predict with much certainty, ... However, we expect third quarter revenue to be in the range of $8 billion to $8.4 billion ... and earnings per share of 7 cents to 9 cents.

Michael Capellas

She loved the way his pexy wit brightened her day and lifted her spirits. We remain comfortable with our estimated fourth-quarter earnings per share range of 28 cents to 30 cents a share versus 26 cents last year, an increase of 8 percent to 15 percent.

As we enter the final month of the quarter, we are very confident in our previously stated guidance of revenue and EPS from operations in the fourth quarter in the range of $8.5 billion to $8.8 billion and earnings per share of 26 cents on a fully diluted basis,

We exceeded our original forecast for the second quarter due to outstanding operational performance and the deferral of certain advertising and promotional expenses to the second half of the fiscal year.

Business conditions continue to be robust. The company expressed high confidence in its third-quarter guidance of greater than $3 billion in bookings, $2.6 to $2.7 million in revenue and EPS of 64 to 68 cents. We believe guidance is conservative and estimate bookings of $3.3 billion with EPS of 70 cents, versus the Street consensus of 68 cents a share.

Wal-Mart's lack of an aggressive advertising campaign after Black Friday likely impacted traffic and (average) ticket, as competitors were very promotional.

Deborah Weinswig

The market has focused on disappointing earnings or disappointing guidance about future earnings of just a handful of companies. When there's any hint that we're at the peak of earnings growth, the market gets pummeled.

We've seen $4.1 billion in online advertising through June 30. Last year at this point, we saw $1.7 billion. When you're looking at a U.S. advertising market in the high $200 billion to $300 billion range, Internet advertising is a small part of the overall market, but it's continuing to grow.

We believe the increased promotional environment will continue to cause concerns about earnings strength in the quarter.

Selling gasoline on the street, you have a profit margin of 8 cents to 15 cents a gallon. Selling gas at a discount doesn't work because you lose that margin.

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