322 ordspråk av Art Hogan

Art Hogan

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The retail stores are doing well. Consumers remain confident, continue to be out there spending their money, ... A lot of money was created with lower interest rates and refinancing -- things of that nature. So, consumer confidence has stayed very high and retail stores, that have actually done it right, have been doing pretty well.

Soothing words from the Federal Reserve Chairman perhaps [brought the markets back off their lows], ... Greenspan's certainly not said anything that would hurt the markets.

Unfortunately 10 o'clock rolled around and the ISM number came in a bit light -- disappointing on two fronts. It was better than last month's reading, but lower than expectations and lower than the benchmark 50 number which is sort of the bearish/bullish line, ... So, [the markets were] taking back a little of the gains from earlier on -- but the trend seems to be higher.

There's a lot of improvement priced into the earnings, and provided we see confirmation of that, we should be able to keep gaining over the next few sessions, ... But if another major household name -- like GE last week -- were to disappoint, you could see some selling.

There's an unbelievable number of reports coming out, any number of which could move us one way or the other, ... If we have a blowup in the jobless claims, and it goes above 400,000, if the consumer sentiment number doesn't confirm today's consumer confidence number, you could see some selling.

We have just digested so much news in the last week or so, ... Fourth-quarter earnings have been much better than expected, but you have people reluctant to make big bets ahead of things like the payroll report Friday, or the G7 meeting, which will be important for the dollar.

The Fed said rates are going higher, which was no surprise, ... But when you're in an interest rate rising environment, all the smatterings of what would be considered good news look like a confirmation that rates will rise.

TI wasn't as bad as predicted. We priced in the worst-case scenario, and it wasn't the worst, ... We're realizing that, yeah, spending on IT (information technology) is slowing, but it's not stopping.

This is definitely good news, ... Six out of the previous eight PPI reports have been higher than expected but the corresponding CPI reports have not. That means that we're not seeing the creeping effects of inflation passed on to the consumer.

The concern (about ECB rates) is that the firmness we've been seeing in the dollar is because they were raising rates and the Europeans weren't, ... If they start raising rates, that firmness evaporates, and our investments don't look as attractive as they did last week.

There are a lot of headwinds right now,

The headwinds facing the market are plentiful,

When you see a deal of this size, obviously (Washington Mutual) is still acquirable,

I don't think that's what happened here, I think that will be more of a fourth-quarter issue, ... I do think we'll see some backup in consumer discretionary spending. That's something we're going to be listening to on 4Q estimates.

People are starting to wake up to the [credit] exposure J.P. Morgan and Citigroup have to WorldCom.

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