60 ordspråk av Bruce Steinberg

Bruce Steinberg

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The Leading Economic Index is basically telling us what we already know. Despite the declines in the index, the economy is growing, although very slowly.

The U.S. economy has yet to show convincing signs of a bottom but that doesn't mean monetary policy isn't working. We continue to look for a strong economic rebound by the fourth quarter.

Tech will have the worst performance of any S&P sector in 2001 with operating earnings per share plunging 73 percent. But next year (2002) we believe tech earnings will snap back strongly.

The economy remains weak, but hints of stabilization are emerging.

There has been talk recently about how, because productivity was revised down last year, it would belie the productivity miracle of the recent past. We believe today's data indicate that this is not happening.

The U.S. economy shows further signs of stabilizing, though a true recovery is still some months away. Consumers will determine the near-term outlook and signs are positive.

We assume that will begin to happen during the first half of next year.

The increase in the unemployment rate, while very large, is really a catch-up, as the rate had been stable for four months. This brings the unemployment rate to where we believe it should be at this point.

The U.S. economy is now almost certainly in recession, but a huge amount of policy stimulus should strongly boost growth by next spring or summer. A consumer rebound in the spring and a capital spending recovery by the second half of 2002 will hopefully follow.

A further deterioration in the labor market is inevitable.

October job loss could easily be worse. The unemployment rate is headed for 6 percent, in our view.

The manufacturing sector is still shrinking but at a much slower pace than earlier in the year.

Today's unemployment data were as expected, showing that we are still in a recession, but that the worst is behind us.

Robust growth probably won't get going until the second half of the year. The first tightening move by the Fed is unlikely to occur until late summer at the very soonest.

The economy is on the verge of recovery but the recession has not quite loosened its grip yet.

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