They are very well acquainted with each another and I think they will have a good working relationship. So there will be continuity of policy. But still, I think Rubin's departure, at the end of the day, is still a loss. |
They've already been working together. Summers sits in on the meetings Rubin has with Greenspan much of the time. |
This is a great PPI number. We have literally no wholesale inflation in the U.S. economy. The PPI went down, the core PPI was unchanged, and over the past year wholesale prices measured by the core PPI are barely up at all. |
This report provides the first indication of the state of capital spending in the second quarter, and the data were quite strong. |
Today's unemployment data were as expected, showing that we are still in a recession, but that the worst is behind us. |
We assume that will begin to happen during the first half of next year. |
We believe [Thursday's] remarks were enough to think that the Fed will take a 'wait and see' attitude rather than ease one last time. |
We believe if the Fed does not cut by 75 basis points, there is a risk the market would be disappointed. If the Fed does cut by 75 basis points, we do not think that the selling climax would continue past that point. |
We believe the Fed is done. But even if the Fed is done, it will continue to talk tough, stressing inflation risks, in part to keep markets from going to far too soon. |
We don't expect the Fed to tighten anytime soon. The first tightening move is unlikely to occur before late summer at the very soonest. |
We don't have any inflation problem. The CPI was a one-time aberration. |
We have to stay tuned for more economic data. |
We still believe that the recession will persist through the winter, mainly because major job loss looms ahead in order to restore profit margins. |
We think the Fed will continue cutting rates, although less aggressively. We are expecting another [quarter-point] cut at the December meeting and another cut in January, with the fed funds rate ending up at 1.5 percent. |
With the economy showing signs of life, the Fed easing cycle is probably at an end. We expect the Fed to hold steady. |