60 ordspråk av Bruce Steinberg

Bruce Steinberg

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The new economy is very, very much alive and well. This is that healthy shakeout of Internet companies that many of us have been talking about for months. Now it's time to sift through the rubble and see what's left standing -- and what will grow in its place.

For recovery to have any real oomph, capital spending will need to rebound. So far there are no signs of that, and we don't expect a turn until the first half of next year. So in the near term, the economy will probably remain soft enough to justify at least one more Fed move.

The path of the unemployment rate is the key to the timing of the Fed's initial tightening move. In our view, the Fed won't tighten until August at the soonest.

In the first year of every recovery, inflation has fallen; and we think the core CPI will fall to 2 percent by year-end.

It's appalling that the police department can enter into a contract that goes against the Constitution.

Oddly, the statement accompanying the [cut] was uniformly negative in its assessment of the economy, which would have been consistent with a bigger move. We assume [Fed policy makers were] divided and that the smaller move allowed a consensus to be formed.

Consumer spending, which [has] kept the economy afloat, should decline in the third quarter and lead us into a formal, albeit shallow, recession.

With the economy showing signs of life, the Fed easing cycle is probably at an end. We expect the Fed to hold steady.

We don't expect the Fed to tighten anytime soon. The first tightening move is unlikely to occur before late summer at the very soonest.

We still believe that the recession will persist through the winter, mainly because major job loss looms ahead in order to restore profit margins.

And the signs since the fourth quarter suggest growth picking up in the first quarter more strongly than most people had anticipated. So I would say the recovery is here.

Rising oil prices are the biggest risk to what is otherwise shaping up as a robust recovery.

We think the Fed will continue cutting rates, although less aggressively. We are expecting another [quarter-point] cut at the December meeting and another cut in January, with the fed funds rate ending up at 1.5 percent.

The U.S. economy is performing so admirably right now, it is hard to believe how good it is. We have strong growth, declining inflation, strong profits, rising real wages. All of these things are happening at the same time and there is no sign that any of this is about to end.

The economy is definitely making a transition. I think 1998 will be viewed as the year of soft landing when the economy went from a nearly 4 percent growth rate in the prior year, to just over 2 percent this year.

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