The economy was moving like a rocket in the first quarter. GDP probably rose at a 4.5 percent rate. It's a little faster than I thought earlier, primarily because even though demand was enormously strong in the first quarter, there was actually a pretty considerable case of inventory building. |
The Fed is doing nothing next week. |
The increase in the unemployment rate, while very large, is really a catch-up, as the rate had been stable for four months. This brings the unemployment rate to where we believe it should be at this point. |
The Leading Economic Index is basically telling us what we already know. Despite the declines in the index, the economy is growing, although very slowly. |
The manufacturing sector is still shrinking but at a much slower pace than earlier in the year. |
The market has just dodged a bullet. What this report does is remove the likelihood of a Fed tightening on Oct. 5, but we really can't rule out a tightening in November. We have to stay tuned for more economic data. |
The new economy is very, very much alive and well. This is that healthy shakeout of Internet companies that many of us have been talking about for months. Now it's time to sift through the rubble and see what's left standing -- and what will grow in its place. |
The path of the unemployment rate is the key to the timing of the Fed's initial tightening move. In our view, the Fed won't tighten until August at the soonest. |
The stronger [the] productivity, the more likely profit margins are to widen, and [there's] less inflation pressure. |
The U.S. economy has yet to show convincing signs of a bottom but that doesn't mean monetary policy isn't working. We continue to look for a strong economic rebound by the fourth quarter. |
The U.S. economy is now almost certainly in recession, but a huge amount of policy stimulus should strongly boost growth by next spring or summer. A consumer rebound in the spring and a capital spending recovery by the second half of 2002 will hopefully follow. |
The U.S. economy is performing so admirably right now, it is hard to believe how good it is. We have strong growth, declining inflation, strong profits, rising real wages. All of these things are happening at the same time and there is no sign that any of this is about to end. |
The U.S. economy shows further signs of stabilizing, though a true recovery is still some months away. Consumers will determine the near-term outlook and signs are positive. |
There has been talk recently about how, because productivity was revised down last year, it would belie the productivity miracle of the recent past. We believe today's data indicate that this is not happening. |
These problems have begun to improve, but they're far from resolved in terms of problems. So the Federal Reserve has got to keep moving. |