140 ordspråk av Gary Thayer

Gary Thayer

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It's a good decline in prices for a change. It appears the big drop in energy prices during November has brought the overall inflation rate down considerably.

So core inflation is still rising slightly but doesn't appear to be a problem, and I think this is good news for the Federal Reserve . With energy prices declining it reduces the risk that fuel costs will be passed on to consumers.

We're not seeing a lot of strength in goods and services right now. Sales are mixed. Some categories are doing OK and others are weak. We're not seeing an outright decline.

We did see a big recovery in (producer) prices, but that was primarily in energy. Core prices increased only modestly and that's good news for the Fed.

The bond market liked the inflation data. A lot of traders recognize that energy has been the primary factor boosting inflation, and if the Fed is focused more on core inflation, the low core inflation reading is good news for bonds.

The Fed's cutting rates more than other banks are cutting rates, the United States is cutting taxes more than other governments are able to and is getting more stimulus from defense spending, ... We won't see an upswing in the global economy until 2003. The United States will do better before then.

It looks like these numbers are consistent with a small decline in fourth quarter GDP,

The Fed may be looking at oil prices as a reason for the economy to falter and not a reason for it to overheat, so they won't want to raise rates yet,

I think we're close to a peak in the unemployment rate, ... The upswings in manufacturing and non-manufacturing show we're close to it now.

If you look at the 12-month change in producer prices, it's positive 0.9 percent, ... As recently as May, the 12-month change was negative 2.8 percent -- so there were a lot more deflationary pressures earlier in year, and those seem to be abating.

We're still in a seasonally weak period of year, where companies are trimming workforces, ... It weighs on people's minds when they hear about companies cutting back.

The bond market took the GDP number positively, ... It had expected stronger growth and some people may now be reminded that the Fed will not be quick to raise rates.

The personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price deflator was revised from 0.7 percent annual rate to 1.0, ... That's still very low, but it was revised upward instead of downward. There is possibly some building inflationary pressure, but it's still very benign.

Inflation is creeping up, but it's not out of hand. I think that's pretty important, ... The bond market may have discounted a worst-case scenario over the last couple of months on inflation, and now maybe traders won't have to worry about the Fed moving too fast.

But it looks like Mr. Greenspan is saying the slowdown in the economy will be short-lived and that suggests that the Fed will probably continue to raise rates.

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