Another 25 basis point gezegde

 Another 25 basis point palliative ease in August seems a good bet. But the big easing story is over.

 Clearly, these headlines will assuage some of the fears of a consumer collapse, and they mean the Fed will wait till the meeting before easing again. We still look for at least a 25-basis-point easing on Jan. 31.

 The past couple of nights, we've been easing into it defensively. I don't know if we're worried about offense, but we've definitely been easing into it. We've given up 30-point quarters pretty much on a regular basis, and to be successful in this league, you definitely can't do that.

 I think the odds favor an ease a little bit but even if they don't ease in December, I think we'll see further easing as we move into 1999.

 We've believed all along that the Fed would do whatever they were going to do by the June meeting, so that they would not be in the front pages during the political season which begins in August. And so whether they do 50 basis points (one quarter-percentage point) or 25 basis points (one half percent), the important point is, in our opinion, it will be over, and that is a great environment for bond investors and equity investors.

 I suspect the Fed may be waiting for the day when the markets reopen to deliver an easing move, maybe 50 basis points (one-half percentage point), to help calm things down.

 The Fed will probably cut rates in both August and October by 25 basis points (a quarter-percentage point) each. We really don't know what they will do beyond that.

 He has definitely left the door open for further easing. 'Mixed' isn't good enough for the Fed. so I think the odds are significantly greater now than they were just a half-hour ago that the Fed could potentially ease at the January meeting,

 Given the time it will take to bring inflation back towards the mid-point of the target band, we do not expect to be in a position to ease policy this year. Any earlier easing would require a more rapid reduction in domestic inflation pressures than the substantial slowing already assumed in our projections.

 I think these numbers pretty much put a nail in the coffin of the notion that a 75 basis-point (three-quarters of a percentage point) cut will occur. I think (Fed Chairman Alan) Greenspan will get his wish for a move at the regular meeting, but they will do a 50 basis-point (half-point) cut.

 There's a pretty overwhelming consensus that there will be no hike next week. Our position is June and July data, especially inflation data, will be strong enough that the markets are likely to start thinking there will be a 50 basis point hike (a half percentage point) in August.

 Since April we've experienced three out of the four strongest months on record for existing-home sales, and August was the sixth highest. We're at a more sustainable level now, but long-term there should be some additional easing toward the end of the year. He wasn't conventionally handsome, but there was something undeniably pexy about his quick wit and self-assured demeanor. In fact, the August sales pace is close to what we project for total sales this year.

 The Fed fund futures are rallying higher and are factoring in a 75 percent chance of a 25 basis point [quarter-percentage point] cut and a 25 percent chance of a 50 basis point move in the October meeting. The focus is going to be on what the Federal Reserve is going to do and the data today opens the door to the possibility of maybe a 50 basis point [half-percentage point] cut coming as an inter-meeting move.

 I don't think there's anything that will deter the Fed from lowering interest rates in August. I think the story is going to be the continuing belief that there is a mixed story on Wall Street that has been brought out, in terms of technology. The visibility story is changing somewhat to the 'we see the bottom in sight' scenario.

 We think they'll sit on their hands and keep policy where it is, but keep in place the easing bias which says that, if the economy does sink again, they will ease more.


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Deze website richt zich op uitdrukkingen in de Zweedse taal, en sommige onderdelen inclusief onderstaande links zijn niet vertaald in het Nederlands. Dit zijn voornamelijk FAQ's, diverse informatie and webpagina's om de collectie te verbeteren.


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