The good news is the surge in business investment is laying the groundwork for improved growth. This is what the central bank wants and so they will stay on the sidelines. |
The interest-rate advantage with the U.S. will continue to narrow and that will weigh on the Australian dollar. |
The market is now taking a pause to assess just what Rita will do. It won't fully digest Rita until Monday, although the forecasts are looking a little better than yesterday at present. |
The much-needed rotation in the sources of Australia's economic growth away from consumer spending and home building is well under way. |
The probability of rate cuts this year is very high and we see 100 basis points of easing starting in July or September. |
The prolonged sluggish performance in exports is unwelcome because exports are another area of the economy that needs to improve, given the slowdown in the domestic economy. |
The Reserve Bank has no need to tighten or to ease rates. |
The Reserve Bank will be happy with this result and be content to sit on the sidelines. Companies are wearing some of the price pressure rather than passing it on. When consumers are tightening their purses, retailers don't want to be cranking up prices. |
There is further weakness ahead for consumers. House prices are falling, home construction is soft, consumer confidence is down and oil prices have risen. |
There's no need for the central bank to raise interest rates again. |
These reports provide further reasons for interest rates to remain on hold. |
This is a concern for Australia's growth outlook. We've been depending on better exports to take up some of the slack in the Australian economy as consumer spending cools. So far, that transition hasn't been very smooth. |
We don't think there is anything to warrant a rate move from the central bank. Even though building approvals rose in November, housing is still in correction mode. |
We still think commodity prices are at their peak and will gradually come off, but we've just pushed out the timing a little bit. |
We're still hoping for a big rebound in export volumes this year, but we're certainly off to a shaky start. We think there's plenty of demand and that prices will be sustained -- it's just getting the product out there. |