102 ordspråk av Ken Perkins

Ken Perkins

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We haven't seen this kind of positive sales performance since we began tracking the group in November 2000. Fourth-quarter profits for department stores rose 5 percent compared to a 1 percent rise a year ago. We've now has a couple of quarters of improving trends.

appears to be on a mend.

If numbers are better than expected and the news is good for second quarter outlooks, then we could rally on that. But I think the results are pretty much baked into the cake here.

One obvious explanation (for the weakness) is that investors are aware that Best Buy faces much tougher sales comparisons, particularly in the second half of the year. Looking at the numbers, second-quarter sales were up 7.8 percent, third-quarter sales rose 5.8 percent.

Economic conditions have improved significantly from March last year when commerce was impeded for much of the month by the run up to the Iraq war. People do appear to be shopping more.

Earnings are going to have to really go up in order for valuations to look attractive. Tech earnings are going to be strong but it's already more or less priced into the stocks,

The numbers look pretty good so far. We are seeing more surprises to the upside and this is a nice reversal of the trend that we had expected last month. Even among those retailers who missed our forecast, not many of them blamed gas prices for it.

There were a number of factors that dampened consumer spending,

Consumers really felt the pinch of higher gas prices and job growth is stagnant.

If the price of oil remains between $45 to $50 a barrel, that's not a good sign especially if we experience a very cold winter. Heating oil prices will go up and that's likely to dampen consumer spending during the winter months.

Fourth-quarter retail earnings are expected to grow 13.5 percent. That's below last year's growth and could come down further if we see plenty of promotions.

We've already seen some big disappointments in both Limited and Ann Taylor. Up front, retailers are also facing their most difficult hurdle of the year in the form of a 6.1 percent gain racked up in September last year.

High energy prices coupled with uncertainty regarding future economic growth and the job situation appear to be disproportionately impacting low-end consumers and hurting sales.

I thought the result would have been a little more even because of the dire news that we were getting after Thanksgiving about slowing sales. So this (sales showing) is a pleasant surprise,

On average, comparable sales grew 5.8 percent just in those three months compared to an average of 2.6 percent in the last six months of 2004, ... The first-half of the year will be a big challenge.

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