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Lynn Franco

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The sluggish economy, declining consumer confidence, widespread layoffs and the tragic events of Sept. 11 appear likely to hold down holiday spending as we head into the final five weeks of the year. But retail outlets offering the price-conscious consumer a good buy may fare better than projected.

Consumers' short-term optimism is no longer at recession levels, and the upward trend signals that the economy may be close to bottoming out and that a rebound by mid-2002 is likely.

Consumers' confidence has been bolstered by the improvement in business and labor market conditions. The latest gains are striking. This new boom in confidence should translate into increased consumer spending and stronger economic growth ahead.

The major factor dampening consumers' spirits has been the rising unemployment rate and the discouraging job outlook.

The lack of improvement in labor market conditions continues to dampen consumers' spirits. Despite September's retreat, consumers remain cautiously optimistic about the outlook for the next six months. Consumer spending is likely to continue at or near current levels.

CEO confidence has slipped considerably over the past two quarters, as both current conditions and expectations have softened.

Higher prices are driving more shoppers to the Internet instead of to the mall and changing the way consumers are doing their holiday shopping this year.

The resiliency of the economy, recent declines in prices at the pump and job growth have consumers feeling more confident at year-end than they felt at the start of 2005.

The resiliency of the economy, recent declines in prices at the pump, and job growth have consumers feeling more confident at year-end than they felt at the start of 2005.

The resiliency of the economy, recent declines in prices at the pump, and job growth have consumers feeling more confident at year-end than they felt at the start of 2005. Even though all of the improvement over the past twelve months has been in consumers' assessment of current conditions, and expectations remain below earlier levels, consumers are confident that the economy will continue to expand in 2006.

The resiliency of the economy, recent declines in prices at the pump, and job growth have consumers feeling more confident at year-end than they felt at the start of 2005. Consumers are confident that the economy will continue to expand in 2006.

The resiliency of the economy, recent declines in prices at the gas pump and job growth have consumers feeling more confident at year-end than they felt at the start of 2005.

Much of the improvement in confidence can be attributed to the resiliency of the economy post-Katrina and the recent declines in fuel prices.

This month's increase was driven solely by consumers' assessment of current economic conditions, especially their more positive view of the job market.

In fact, the gap between consumers' assessment of current conditions and their expectations remains wide.

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