187 ordspråk av Mark Zandi

Mark Zandi

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 Housing has peaked. And all indications are that sales will weaken further in the months ahead.

 Housing is a fault line in the economy that Greenspan is indeed worried about, but he doesn't think a housing (slowdown) will undermine the expansion.

 Housing will continue to cool.

 Housing, the strongest part of the economy, is still booming, and manufacturing, the weakest part, should gain strength in coming months. Put it all together and it paints a pretty economic picture of solid growth and low inflation.

 I don't buy into those supply-side, trickle-down ideas. Those arguments might have made some sense 25 years ago, when the top tax rate was 70 percent, but not today, when the top rate is half of that.

 I don't really put too much weight on the big ups and downs in the energy prices. And food prices also fell. That probably is related to the warm winter weather, and we can't count on that continuing for very long, either.

 I suspect this is a pause and we still see a resumption of top line growth and, ultimately, better hiring in tech.

 I think the Fed will get rid of the reference about what to do in the future. I think they will make the statement as plain vanilla as possible, and they won't try to send a strong signal one way or the other.

 I think the message in this inverted yield curve is muddled. I think it is something to watch and to understand better. But I am not overly concerned.

 I think the most likely scenario is that housing euphoria slowly deflates but doesn't burst.

 I think the new chairman will be more aggressive in tightening policy, at least early on in his term, just to establish his inflation-fighting credentials.

 I think they will tighten, but there is a much higher level of uncertainty regarding this decision than at any one since they started over a year ago.

 I think they're going to stick to their script, that they're going to continue to tighten at each meeting.

 I think this is a harbinger of more problems to come, ... I think we should look for fresh new records [in delinquencies] in the fourth quarter and first quarter of next year as [credit card] payments rise higher and as energy prices really begin to bite.

 I think what we are seeing with the bond yields is a byproduct of globalization. That being said, I think it is something to watch and to understand better. But I am not overly concerned.


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