187 ordspråk av Mark Zandi

Mark Zandi

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I think what we have in store is a slow deflating of the housing bubble, not a bursting of the bubble. But if mortgage rates rise more sharply than I am expecting, then the downturn in housing could be more severe.

I thought oil would have been a concern since it hit $40 but the economy has digested it well,

I would attach a reasonably high probability that there will be a problem in the housing or finance markets that will test the next Fed chairman.

If Greenspan had been stronger in his views, then the bubble would not have been as large and the subsequent correction not as severe.

If illegal immigration came to a standstill, it would disrupt the economy. It would lead to higher prices for many goods and services, and some things literally would not get done. It would be a major adjustment for our economy, for sure.

If my decision were based solely on economic considerations, I would tighten again. I think the economy won't be derailed by this. I think the economy is firm and they (Fed governors) can send a signal that things are as they were.

If protectionist sentiment boils over, that could be a precipitating factor for the dollar. In a dollar crash scenario, it puts the Fed in a particularly difficult spot. Do they tighten policy (raise interest rates) to attract global capital or do they loosen it to help support the economy?

If revenue growth does not start to pick up that would squeeze profit margins.

If the Fed were going to pause in response to Katrina, it probably would be in November and December,

if the financial markets were reeling and the images from the Gulf were getting worse instead of better, if energy prices were rising instead of falling. But given the economic data and financial markets, there's no reason to make a symbolic move.

If the job market doesn't kick into higher gear soon, consumers will lose confidence and rein in their spending, and the economy will in all likelihood fall back into recession unless we're very lucky.

If there's any disruption anywhere, actual or perceived, prices go higher -- which reflects the very thin excess capacity in the global oil market. Clearly, the record-high levels for energy prices meant a windfall for related industries.

If underlying inflation begins to percolate higher, that will mean we will have to struggle with rising prices and higher interest rates.

If we get a string of bad data on inflation, the Fed will probably have to tighten for a bit longer.

If you add up all the energy that flows through the region, it accounts for about a third of the nation's supply.

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