46 ordspråk av Michael Gregory

Michael Gregory

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The Bank of Japan is taking a little step towards trying some remedies, ... now appears to be more conducive to helping them.

There's little doubt out there that Greenspan will move this time around and try to put the brakes on growth a bit. The question is whether this is a one-time deal or a continuation of a series of moves meant to really keep the economy in line.

Underlying demand in the U.S. economy remains solid, irrespective of the stock market. We are looking at growth in domestic spending that will probably exceed what we had in the fourth quarter.

There is no question that the economy is slowing, but it's not exactly shrinking, either, ... We are seeing the first tentative signs of slowing, but you have to remember that we are starting at a very high base of growth. The Fed will still err on the side of caution and restraint.

the Fed is going to want to take the more cautious road. Two months is an awful long time to wait to react to evidence, particularly if that evidence indicates the economy is starting to heat up again.

Is there a risk the Fed has tightened too much? Not with the kind of momentum we're seeing in the economy and not with consumer confidence at record highs. People are wealthier, real incomes are growing, the housing market, while slower, is still super strong and the labor market is still super tight. I don't think the Fed is finished just yet.

all the pieces of evidence, all the statements that have been reviewed, all the witnesses that have been spoken to.

We're seeing signs that consumers are starting to feel the impact of persistently high gas prices. As prices stay high we're going to see the impact broaden from discount to more mainstream retailers.

Inflation is not a problem right now; that is not really what the Fed is paying attention to.

Factory activity likely cooled slightly in December, but remains robust.

The question for the Fed is what inflation will look like in 12 to 18 months. The U.S. economy is still growing fast enough to use up slack that's out there in the economy, and that could present an inflation threat down the road.

If it's the case that certain kinds of trade are not done with Cuba right now because they're in U.S. dollars, then that's fine -- changing to the euro might help that, ... If it's a case where using euros to conduct more liberal trade with Europe, then that's certainly of benefit, as well.

There's a general consensus out there that rates are headed higher in the U.S. and Europe, but there's apprehension about it anyway, ... That affecting the euro and that's affecting the bond market.

Much of the decline is disappointment among investors who were burnt quite badly in 1999 where they thought things had bottomed, ... You'll have to see some tougher talk from the ECB, more robust economic data from Europe and eventually a rate hike.

Do they really want to end the party? Of course not, ... They want to tone the party down before something gets broken or damaged, or worse, before someone gets hurt. It's similar to a marathon: if you pace yourself properly you can get to the end without overexertion. That is what the Fed is trying to do here.

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