46 ordspråk av Michael Gregory

Michael Gregory

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It's only a matter of time though before the consumer succumbs to weakening housing and higher gas prices, and I think we'll see that by the third quarter.

There is a lot of momentum in this economy. Consumer spending is continuing to march along, business spending is solid and you have a pick up in foreign demand.

Exports should find further support from the pickup in global economic growth.

With business outlays solid and foreign demand picking up, this will likely keep the Fed in the tightening game through the first half of the year.

Despite the fact that energy prices are creeping up and housing continues to crumble, surveys suggest job gains are providing an offset for confidence. The potential is there for consumer spending to remain resilient.

Mortgage equity withdrawal (which keys off prices and rates) is going to ebb substantially and pull consumer spending growth down along with it. When it does, the Fed will pause.

Our last two fires had smoke detectors, but no batteries, ... We're praying to get the word out (about smoke alarms).

People are infatuated with candles, they're using them more than ever,

The dollar-yen relationship is still the forefront issue in most people's minds. There's a fear for both stocks and bonds that if the depreciation continues there will be less appeal for U.S. dollar-denominated assets.

The big news will be the G-7. If the markets get a sense that there's somebody out there who will do something to prevent the dollar from falling further, I think people will be relieved.

I'd thought they wouldn't want to sort of venture there again, given that all is not perfect on the commodity price front,

But against the backdrop of improvements in commodity prices, the fact the Canadian dollar has been rallying and the long end of the market had already priced it in, they thought, 'Listen, our rates should be below U.S. rates. Our inflation is lower and we're well behind in the economic cycle.'

There wasn't all that much of a surprise there. Clearly the risk is still there for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.

That's certainly going to be the critical number. A number indicating employment growth, particularly increases in wages, could prompt the Fed to move by the end of this month.

The market is concerned about not if, but how much over the course of the year the Fed will move. There's been a lot of discussion about more than one rate increase, which is what's concerning the markets.

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