Earnings are going to be mixed. |
I don't think there's likely to be much of a setback here. We could see some consolidation, but I don't see any reason for a sustained decline. |
I've said we would make a cyclical top in the first half of 2004. It may not happen until the third quarter, but the ingredients are moving into place. |
Intel isn't the market. They're marking the futures down, but I think this is a minimal affair. Everybody already knew the tech sector is in trouble. This is nervous traders protecting themselves -- not the start of a new decline. |
Investors are going to be surprised when we get a string of stronger economic stats. But we might have to get through earnings season before that happens. |
It was a strong day for technology and small stocks. But most major stocks were mediocre performers. |
Next, we worry about the 'January effect,' or lack of it. |
So far, Santa has been stingy. |
That shows a significant drop in speculative interest. |
The bullish scenario would be, it [the market] rallies again today and tomorrow. That would be a sign the rebuilding has started. |
There was emotional selling, with huge gaps on the downside. There was huge volatility, and a big recovery after the selling. |
This is just an extension of this selective strength, nominal new-high environment. It doesn't seem to be accelerating. |
This is what the end of a bull market looks like: strong economy, rising interest rates. |
This market is oversold. We've reached new highs and the market is looking for excuses to sell off a bit. But this market is resilient and I think it will prolong its advance by running into some rough spots here. |
We won't know about that until next week. For now, we give the benefit of the doubt to the upside and still look for nominal additional gains early in 2006. |