195 ordspråk av Ray Neidl

Ray Neidl

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But (American) faces the longer-term risk of not being able to cut costs fast enough to match the Chapter 11 carriers, ... We believe that the upside potential in the stock price may be limited due to the potential of heavy dilution from previous and future employee concessions.

Delta is going to be tough sledding. They're not an immediate chance of bankruptcy, ... But they clearly have the highest wage costs for their pilots now. They have to do something.

The price-earnings multiple, based on future earnings forecasts, is still fairly low, in the 5 to 6 range, ... These P/E multiples can go as high as 10. There's still some upside for most of them, except maybe Delta.

I don't know what the likelihood of [the deal] being done is, ... I think it's serious, I think something is going on -- and many people were surprised, including myself, that American would even want to buy TWA, which is basically a real problem asset. And then you have the problems of integrating the work force.

The advantage to American is they could buy assets very cheaply, since TWA has very low equity value, and also it would prevent another airline from moving into St. Louis and competing with American if TWA were to fail,

I think there's an overreaction here, ... Everybody's getting crushed today, but I would interpret it as being a United problem.

It looks like it's a big deal for them (AMR and UAL) because they keep raising the ante, ... Canada by itself is a very small market, but it does have a strategic geographic importance, and it's right next to the American market, which makes it all the more important.

I think the market was looking for an excuse to buy airlines and UAL was the excuse for it today, ... In the first quarter, probably half the majors are going to lose money, but I think that's already factored into the market. I think investors are already looking towards the second quarter.

I don't think there's been a massive sale of slots, ... By having a massive amount of slots sold, it'd be a lot more valuable for a carrier like Continental.

I've never heard of them, and I don't give it much credibility, ... I think you're crazy paying anything for TWA.

The original US Airways/United proposal was almost dead on arrival, ... I don't think regulators would have ever approved that. But by allowing a powerful company like American to come into many Eastern markets ... I think that will make regulators feel a little better.

Probably the TWA system fits in a little bit better with the American system than it would with many other airlines, ... There could be some other bids that develop, but right now that's only a 50-50 chance at most.

The bankruptcy court doesn't think TWA is viable as a stand-alone carrier and neither do I, ... It would need a massive infusion of capital, it'd need a completely new game plan, and it'd need massive concessions from labor, which it's not going to get.

The odds are still against an approval, ... Are the concessions all 'hard dollars' is the question that the ATSB and analysts are asking.

I wouldn't be surprised if it passed. Maybe the machinists are just trying to send a message to everybody, ... Also, the machinists are a big part of the skilled workers and maybe some of them thought they could do just as well if they left United -- if United were to go out of business.

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