I do not want to generate fear unnecessarily, |
I do think, however, that it is very important that we, as individuals, protect ourselves; that businesses make contingency plans; and that governments at all levels ? public health officials everywhere ? do what is necessary to minimize the danger of a potential pandemic. |
I'm not worried about inflation per se ; I'm worried about inflation in asset prices. When the Fed has been aggressively easy in the past, it's ended up having to come in and aggressively raise interest rates and cause a lot of unnecessary dislocation. |
If the incoming data remain relatively soft, including the inflation data, the Fed will take a pass in August, ... Even if they do raise rates, it may well be the end of the tightening cycle, which is very good news for the stock and bond markets. |
In a vibrant economy, you will always have some prices rising and some falling. That's a good thing, and that's what seems to be happening at this stage. |
Inflation in the U.S. remains virtually non-existent, as does corporate pricing power. |
Investors appear to view the growing shortfall as a natural by-product of robust U.S. growth and not a sign of flagging competitiveness, ... The concern for financial markets is that if this view ever changes, the fallout would occur rapidly. |
It certainly affects psychology, but if the job market starts growing, that effect is far more important to psychology than something that's happening half a world away. |
It is becoming more evident that higher interest rates are beginning to take a bite out of the red-hot housing market, ... While today's housing start result exaggerated weakness in the sector, it is yet another sign that the impact of higher rates has pushed housing activity off its peak. |
It's a great number obviously, and that's a sigh of relief, but I wouldn't put too much into the decline of the core, |
It's an unmitigated negative for the economy -- but hopefully it's temporary. |
January's results were clearly exaggerated, but the underlying trend is still surprisingly healthy. |
June's swoon is indeed proving to be temporary, |
June's swoon is indeed proving to be temporary. |
My take is that the Fed will continue to raise overnight rates until it feels it has moved from a stimulative to a neutral policy stance. That will likely take the funds rate to 4 per cent-to-4.25 per cent by yearend. |