No surprises for the bank, so no shift in the policy program. |
October and November ... sales each registered substantial gains (excluding autos), pointing to a reasonable fourth-quarter consumer spending figure when all is said and done. |
On balance, headline inflation has likely peaked, but the core rate is at the top end of the Fed's comfort zone, which will keep [chairman Allan] Greenspan's foot firmly on the brakes, |
On balance, headline inflation has likely peaked, but the core rate is at the top end of the Fed's comfort zone, which will keep [chairman Allan] Greenspan's foot firmly on the brakes. |
Overall, this can be viewed as more evidence that the consumer is hanging in well despite the run-up in oil prices and growing equity market volatility. |
Predicting the long-awaited U.S. economic slowdown can be a risky business, |
Recall the Fed's assessment following the (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting on Aug. 24, that the dual summertime rate hikes 'should markedly diminish the risk of inflation going forward,' ... This call is looking more tenuous with every passing day. |
Right now, it appears that the (Fed) believes that the odds are better than 50-50 that another 25 basis point rate hike will be warranted. |
Right now, the acceleration in commodity prices tips the scales for a 16th and a 17th rate hike by the Fed. |
So I don't think the number was quite as weak as the headline. |
Starts at year-end 2003 will provide additional support for GDP during the first two quarters of 2004 as construction activity gradually brings these buildings to completion, |
Starts at year-end 2003 will provide additional support for GDP during the first two quarters of 2004 as construction activity gradually brings these buildings to completion. |
that the coming holiday season will be rosier than earlier expected. |
The bank's new focus is likely to be on rising wage pressures, but that still seems a distant inflation threat at this point. On balance, there is nothing here to divert the bank from its gradual tightening course. |
The big dip in inventories is a good sign if we are looking for a glimmer of hope here. Maybe we are at a stage where production can pick up again. |