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Shireen Darmalingam

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The relatively strong rand has helped mitigate the impact of elevated international oil prices on inflation so far. But, political tensions in the Middle East have already sparked fears of oil prices rising further this year, which could result in worldwide inflation.

Trade deficits in the final quarter of last year, as measured by the South African Revenue Service, suggest that the Bank's trade reporting will reflect a similar trend of rising deficits.

The residential property market continues to be buoyant even though growth in house prices has softened substantially from last year's peak.

Imported vehicles are flooding the market, and have helped contain local prices over the past year.

Increased aversion in emerging market countries during March resulted in the rand losing ground against its major trading partners.

However, household-debt levels are seen as a concern, with households finding themselves in some difficulty if debt-servicing costs increase.

While growing 5,6% (in January) compared with January last year, production in the sector declined on a seasonally adjusted basis by 2,7% from December.

Should the dollar price of oil continue to soar as oil supply from the world's major oil producers is threatened, a substantial increase in the rand-denominated value of imports could follow.

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