78 ordspråk av Stephen Roach
Stephen Roach
[For all of China's efforts to create a vibrant domestic market, its economy is highly dependent on exports. China's economic model these days] is very much a levered play on the staying power of the overly extended American consumer, ... That's a tough place to be for any economy in an energy shock - even China.
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[Inflation] is starting to broaden out; it's starting to move up a little bit, ... The Fed certainly has to be concerned about that.
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[This] is just another nail in the coffin for the world economy.
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2005 was a year that has lulled a lot of investors, policymakers and government officials into a dangerous and false sense of complacency.
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An extraordinary deflationary shock in tradable goods has coincided with outsize disinflation in services, resulting in the most deflation-prone business cycle of the modern post-World War II era,
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An extraordinary deflationary shock in tradable goods has coincided with outsize disinflation in services, resulting in the most deflation-prone business cycle of the modern post-World War II era.
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As the prospects of a full-blown oil shock rise, the prospects of outright global recession in 2005 loom more and more likely.
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Borrowing from physics, the last thing an unstable system needs is a shock. And yet the risks of just such a disturbance have never seemed higher. Far-fetched as it seems, the possibility of a more perilous endgame is rising.
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By staying disciplined with regard to inflationary policy, the Fed nips any inflationary expectations in the bud.
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China has been moving -- very slowly, but the speed is very much dependent on their ability to withstand reforms. The idea of forcing China and other countries to move on the currency front is a bad one.
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China's senior leadership gets it while many outside the country do not.
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Consumers have stagnant real wages and they are getting hit with the shocks of higher energy prices. This is not a good combination for the overstretched consumer.
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Conventional wisdom has it that globalization is a win-win but that is increasingly looking like a pipe dream. There is no escaping the concerns that workers in high-wage countries have.
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Europe looks at China as more of a strategic partner than a competitive threat so it has stayed more out of the currency debate than the U.S..
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For the last three years, we've had a two-engine world: the Chinese producer and the American consumer. Both engines are going to slow down. The debate will be whether this two-engine global 747 is in danger of stalling.
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