The overall impression I had is that this [report] is really a snapshot that reflects conditions last Tuesday rather than as of Friday. This data does not fully reflect the arrival of Hurricane Rita. |
The situation is not going to get better in the short term. Perhaps it will get worse. |
The weather outlook remains a potential fundamental support for these markets, but it has been so well advertised and has failed to boost prices to such an extent as to suggest that it is still too little winter, too late in the season to matter. |
There is a very strong consensus that gold will continue its trend higher this year and that, in itself, is a warning sign. |
There is nothing close to a physical shortage going on here. Instead, what the market is holding here is a significant, and in fact growing, implied risk premium. |
There is so far an insatiable appetite for holding more inventory. We're still not recognizing it as a glut. |
There is some risk that if the cruise missiles start to fly, that it will disrupt both the current Iraqi exports [and] also interfere with shipping in the Persian Gulf area. |
There may be more cycles of hyperventilation yet to come as Hurricane Rita blows through the Gulf of Mexico, but the DOE data for last week was a calming influence. |
There still may be ample opportunity for price chopping off storm updates over the balance of the week, but the market is looking considerably more relaxed today. |
There's a lot of people who want to do the right thing. My kids are out in the orchard, too. I don't want to poison them. |
They can continue to pump away and ring the cash register, ignoring the looming Q2 supply/demand surplus just like everyone else. |
This could be almost worse than Katrina because there are 4 million barrels of refining in Texas areas, much more than there was in New Orleans. (Texas) is the other major refining heart. |
This is really a happy accident as far as OPEC is concerned. |
This is really just some short-term consolidation. We are inside of yesterday's range. |
This would be bullish for gold. |