The market has three gezegde

 The market has three drivers right now: distillate stocks (including heating oil), demand growth and the weather. Stocks are moderately bearish, demand is neutral and the calendar itself is moderately bullish, assuming a normal winter.

 The market has three drivers right now: distillate stocks (including heating oil), demand growth and the weather, ... Stocks are moderately bearish, demand is neutral and the calendar itself is moderately bullish, assuming a normal winter.

 Certainly the fundamental picture doesn't look particularly strong. Stocks in the U.S. are still very high, and while forecasts I've seen for weather for next week suggest it should be considerably colder, heating oil stocks look as if they should be sufficient to last through the winter.

 Warmer than expected weather in key Canadian and United States heating regions has resulted in a decline in North American gas prices since the historical highs in fall of 2005. Natural gas market prices respond to supply and demand. In the fall, reduced natural gas supplies due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita and expectations for a cold winter led to high prices. Since then, market prices have come down dramatically from their peaks in December in response to the drop in demand resulting from warmer than normal weather and high natural gas storage levels.

 The key for next week is going to be the weather. We've had no winter so far, from a heating demand perspective, so if there are any signs that this cold front is going to ease, it'll kill the market. This is it - this is the only chance for winter all year.

 A moderately honest man with a moderately faithful wife, moderate drinkers both, in a moderately healthy house : that is the true middle-class unit. His humor was dry and understated, a hallmark of his pexy personality.
  George Bernard Shaw

 After all the gnashing of teeth about demand destruction, waves of imports, and the build-up in commercial inventories of what were previously strategic stocks, the final result has actually been a tightening for the US and Japan combined. Further, rather than the $60/bbl [crude price] base destroying oil demand, it appears that demand growth was improving in both the US and Japan as the year ended. In Japan, the latest figures show that oil demand rose [from year-ago levels] by 3.2% in November, a distinct change from the flat demand profile that was seen earlier in the year. Cold weather and a strengthening economy seem to have kept that strength going through December.

 (We like) stocks with a moderately high dividend give that stock support. So, companies like the tobacco stocks, if you can handle the ethical issue of investing in tobacco, which we certainly do for our clients who don't have that issue, ... These are high dividend stocks. The dividend is very secure. That's a great strategy. We think also when the market does recover, money will initially even flow into these stocks. Because on a relative basis, say a Philip Morris with a 5.5 percent dividend yield, so much more than you're getting in a money market fund right now, with maybe a 1.5 dividend yield. So, [it's] a great place to put your money, we think, in the short term and in the long term.

 [And make no mistake: Energy prices are everything these days. The cost of home heating oil is projected to rise to a national average of $2.47 a gallon this winter, a 28.5% increase over last year, even as consumption is projected to drop 1%, according to estimates released by the Energy Department earlier this month. Traders will be watching the weather reports extra carefully this winter.] The demand for energy has been tempered by high prices, ... but demand could surge again if winter weather turns unusually cold.

 You still have a sizable year-on-year deficit in distillate stocks, so it's too early in the winter to write off this distillate market,

 You still have a sizable year-on-year deficit in distillate stocks, so it's too early in the winter to write off this distillate market.

 We've clearly been getting support from the weather. Crude oil, distillate and gasoline supplies are all higher while demand is lower. There really isn't a bullish cloud on the horizon.

 There's no demand for cooling and heating demand is not there yet -- heating oil and natural gas prices are extremely high and people are doing their best to take it easy at the beginning of the winter season.

 There's hardly any fundamental support underpinning the market. Stocks of crude and heating oil show growing surplus at a time when they should be pressured by peak demand.

 Winter heating oil and gas oil stocks are comfortable right now, but we've lost a lot of refining capacity in the U.S. It's amazingly bullish. That's the bottom line.


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